Over a year has passed since the collapse of Nagorno-Karabakh, an unrecognized republic in the South Caucasus, marking the end of a centuries-old Armenian presence in the region. On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a decisive military offensive that brought an end to the Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as Artsakh to Armenians. The swift, brutal conquest forced nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee, bringing an ethnic cleansing that echoed the long, bitter history of the region’s conflicts. Despite its monumental nature, the event barely registered in the global consciousness, overshadowed by other crises such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and the renewed hostilities between Israel and Hamas.
In this article, we revisit the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, exploring the human, cultural, and geopolitical consequences of this forgotten conflict. We’ll examine the long and complex history behind the region, the impact on the Armenian exodus, and what this means for the future of the South Caucasus.
A Brief History of Nagorno-Karabakh
To understand the significance of what happened in September 2023, it’s essential to first grasp what Nagorno-Karabakh was and why it mattered. Nagorno-Karabakh, known to Armenians as Artsakh, was a self-declared independent republic nestled within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders. Its population was predominantly Armenian, and for over three decades, it existed as a de facto independent region, supported by Armenia but unrecognized by the international community.
The origins of the conflict trace back to the Soviet era, when Moscow often created ethnic enclaves within republics, aiming to suppress nationalist sentiments and maintain control. Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous oblast (region) within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, despite its majority-Armenian population. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, both Armenia and Azerbaijan laid claim to the territory, sparking a brutal conflict that would claim tens of thousands of lives and displace hundreds of thousands more.
Between 1988 and 1994, the first Nagorno-Karabakh war erupted, resulting in Armenian forces taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts. This victory displaced nearly the entire Azerbaijani population of the region—about 600,000 people—and led to widespread destruction of Azerbaijani villages and cultural sites. Conversely, 350,000 Armenians were forced to flee Azerbaijan during the same period. The war left deep scars, with both sides committing atrocities, as documented by Human Rights Watch and other organizations. Armenian forces were accused of ethnic cleansing, as were Azerbaijanis in their earlier pogroms against Armenians.
The 2020 War and the Prelude to the 2023 Fall
After years of fragile peace, the region descended into conflict again in 2020. Taking advantage of global distractions like the COVID-19 pandemic, Azerbaijan launched a highly sophisticated military operation with the backing of Turkey and Israeli-supplied drones. Armenian defenses crumbled, and by the end of the conflict, Azerbaijan had retaken the seven districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and significantly weakened Armenian control of the enclave itself.
The 2020 war set the stage for what would happen in 2023. While a ceasefire brokered by Russia left a small part of Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenian control, the situation remained tenuous. The only connection between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia was the Lachin Corridor, a narrow road patrolled by Russian peacekeepers. However, with Russia distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan saw an opportunity. Throughout 2023, Azerbaijani forces increased pressure on the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, severing the Lachin Corridor and imposing a blockade that led to severe shortages of food, medicine, and other essential supplies.
By September, the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh were on the brink of collapse. When Azerbaijan launched its final offensive on September 19, 2023, the outcome was swift and brutal. With no meaningful resistance from the beleaguered Armenians and no intervention from Russian peacekeepers, Nagorno-Karabakh’s government surrendered within a day. The region’s Armenian population fled en masse, leaving behind their homes, land, and a cultural legacy spanning centuries.
The Armenian Exodus and Its Aftermath
The mass exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh was one of the most significant forced migrations in recent history. Nearly 100,000 people fled, often under dangerous and chaotic conditions. The road to Armenia was so congested that dozens died in transit, including those caught in a gas station explosion. The influx of refugees into Armenia created immediate humanitarian challenges, with the small country struggling to provide housing, jobs, and support for the displaced. Today, it is estimated that about 4% of Armenia’s population is made up of Nagorno-Karabakh refugees, a number that includes 30,000 children and 18,000 pensioners.
The Armenian government has made efforts to integrate the refugees, providing financial assistance and attempting to find long-term housing solutions. However, these efforts have been hampered by Armenia’s own economic struggles. The country already has a significant portion of its population living below the poverty line, and while initial support for the refugees was generous, financial aid has since been scaled back. Unemployment remains a major issue among the displaced, and many have reported discrimination from locals. Some have chosen to leave Armenia altogether, seeking new lives in countries like Russia or Europe.
The trauma of losing their homeland continues to weigh heavily on the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. For many, the loss is not just physical but also cultural and emotional. They mourn the destruction of their historical monuments and the erasure of their presence in a region they had inhabited for centuries. To make matters worse, the Armenian government has been hesitant to commemorate the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, fearing that doing so would hinder its ongoing peace negotiations with Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s Victory and the Changing Face of Nagorno-Karabakh
While Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan has been working to reshape the region in its own image. Azerbaijani forces have systematically demolished Armenian homes, churches, and cultural sites, raising concerns of a deliberate attempt to erase Armenian history from the region. According to reports from Radio Free Europe and Bellingcat, hundreds of Armenian buildings have been torn down, and entire villages have been bulldozed. Even Armenian cemeteries have not been spared, with gravesites being desecrated in several locations.
Cultural destruction in Nagorno-Karabakh is not a new phenomenon. During the decades of Armenian control, many Azerbaijani villages were destroyed or left to decay, and both sides have accused each other of erasing cultural heritage. However, the current Azerbaijani efforts appear to be more systematic, with plans in place to repopulate the region with Azerbaijani citizens. According to reports, only about 8,000 Azerbaijanis have returned to the region since 2020, but the government is working to build new housing and infrastructure to accommodate more.
President Ilham Aliyev has been clear about his vision for Nagorno-Karabakh. He sees the region as an integral part of Azerbaijan’s future, one that will be rebuilt and repopulated by Azerbaijani citizens. Large-scale construction projects are underway, including the development of new apartment complexes and the reconstruction of the former capital city, which Azerbaijanis call Shusha. However, these projects have been criticized for corruption and inefficiency, and there are doubts about whether the returning Azerbaijani population will be able to sustain the region in the long term.
The Future of Armenia and Azerbaijan
The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh has had profound implications for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Armenia, the loss of the region has been a national tragedy, with many Armenians feeling that they have been abandoned by the international community. The government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has faced criticism for its handling of the crisis, but Pashinyan has argued that his priority is to secure a lasting peace with Azerbaijan. After losing three wars in the span of three years, Armenia is in no position to fight another conflict. Instead, Pashinyan is focusing on negotiating a comprehensive peace deal that will normalize relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has emerged as the clear victor in the conflict. President Aliyev has achieved what previous Azerbaijani leaders could not—the complete reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan. However, while Azerbaijan has won the war, it now faces the challenge of rebuilding a region that has been devastated by decades of conflict. The success of Aliyev’s vision for Nagorno-Karabakh will depend on his government’s ability to attract Azerbaijani citizens to repopulate the area and rebuild its economy.
Conclusion: A Monumental Event Lost to Time
The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 was a seismic event, one that marked the end of an era for the Armenian people in the South Caucasus. It was an ethnic cleansing on a massive scale, an erasure of a culture and a history that had endured for centuries. Yet, despite the magnitude of what happened, the world barely noticed. Overshadowed by other conflicts, the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh passed with little international outcry, leaving the Armenian refugees to grapple with their loss in silence.
The future of Nagorno-Karabakh remains uncertain. While Azerbaijan has taken control of the region, it still faces the challenge of rebuilding a war-torn land. Meanwhile, the Armenian people who once called it home are scattered, their future uncertain. The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh is a reminder that even in today’s interconnected world, monumental events can be forgotten. As we look to the future of the South Caucasus, it is important to remember what was lost—and to ensure that the people of Nagorno-Karabakh are not forgotten again.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Nagorno-Karabakh?
Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as Artsakh, was a predominantly Armenian region located within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders. It declared independence in 1991 but was never recognized by the international community.
When did the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh happen?
The final military offensive by Azerbaijan that resulted in the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh occurred on September 19, 2023.
How many Armenians were displaced?
Nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians were forced to flee Nagorno-Karabakh following the 2023 offensive.
What is the current status of Nagorno-Karabakh?
Nagorno-Karabakh is now under Azerbaijani control. The region is being repopulated by Azerbaijani citizens, and Armenian cultural and residential sites have been largely demolished.
What is Armenia doing to support the refugees?
The Armenian government has provided financial assistance to the Nagorno-Karabakh refugees, but the country’s economic struggles have made long-term support difficult. Many refugees face unemployment and discrimination, and some have chosen to leave Armenia altogether.