Over the past few centuries, powerful forces like nationalism, self-determination, and the pursuit of sovereignty have shaped much of the modern world. The desire for liberty, a unified culture, and a distinct identity drives people to push for independence. The age of revolution, from the late 18th to early 19th century, drastically changed the global landscape as empires collapsed, and new nations emerged.
However, despite these forces still being at play today, the success of independence movements has become increasingly limited. The global environment has shifted, and the obstacles facing modern independence movements are often insurmountable. This blog explores how the international landscape, national identities, and geopolitics influence the success—or failure—of modern separatist and independence movements.
The Age of Revolution and Birth of Nation-States
The late 1700s and early 1800s were marked by revolutionary fervor. As empires weakened, groups seeking self-determination rose to the forefront, often in the name of nationalism. France’s 1789 Revolution is perhaps the most iconic example of this. The revolution not only led to the birth of the French nation-state but also inspired nationalist movements across Europe. Movements like these redefined international relations and diplomacy, changing how states competed for resources, security, and influence.
Nation-states formed in the wake of these revolutions. These new entities were driven by a shared culture, language, and a powerful sense of nationalism. Europe consolidated its countless tribes and languages into modern nation-states like France, Germany, and Italy. The 19th-century revolutions of 1830 and 1848, often referred to as the “Spring of Nations,” emphasized the link between language, identity, and statehood, showing the importance of a common national identity in the pursuit of independence.
Self-Determination and the Post-WWII Landscape
In the aftermath of World War II, a second wave of independence movements flourished. Decolonization swept across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, with former colonies seeking independence from European powers. The liberal international order, shaped largely by Western ideals, championed the right to self-determination. Many modern states, including India, Indonesia, and much of Africa, owe their independence to this post-war period.
A further wave of independence followed the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s. New states emerged across Eastern Europe and Central Asia, once again shifting international power dynamics. However, with the world now largely organized into 195 nation-states, the modern global landscape is far more rigid. Today, attempts at forming new states, even with strong nationalist movements behind them, often face immense hurdles.
Nationalism and Its Lingering Power
Despite this rigid international landscape, nationalism remains a powerful force, driving movements in regions like Catalonia, Quebec, and Kurdistan. Nationalism provides a shared sense of identity and culture, which, in theory, can help unify people in their pursuit of independence. Language, in particular, has been a critical part of this identity. In France, for example, language played a central role in uniting the nation following the 1789 revolution. In the centuries that followed, France systematically eliminated minority languages like Breton and Occitan to create a unified French identity.
Modern separatist movements still emphasize the importance of language. Catalonia’s distinct language and culture have been at the core of its independence movement. In Quebec, the French language is central to the province’s identity, and the decline of French speakers in recent years has heightened tensions. In Kurdistan, the Kurdish language is a defining part of the region’s cultural autonomy.
But while nationalism and language remain potent tools for unification, they are not always enough to guarantee success. The international and regional environments are now more complex than they were in the 19th century, and many independence movements are hindered by factors beyond their control.
Modern Challenges to Independence
In today’s international system, separatist movements face significant obstacles. The crystallization of 195 nation-states has made it much harder for new countries to emerge. Most existing states view separatist movements as threats to their territorial integrity and security, often leading to repression. This reality is particularly evident in places like China, where separatist movements in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong are met with swift crackdowns. The survival of a state often depends on quelling internal threats, which, in turn, makes external threats easier to manage.
But state repression isn’t the only factor preventing independence movements from succeeding. The geopolitical environment also plays a significant role. Throughout the 20th century, superpowers like the United States and the USSR influenced which nationalist movements could succeed. For example, the US supported Indonesia’s invasion of East Timor in 1975, helping to squash East Timor’s independence movement, while NATO’s intervention in Kosovo helped secure its independence from Serbia in 1999.
In the current multipolar world, the success of independence movements often hinges on the involvement of outside powers. Without foreign intervention, it is nearly impossible for an independence movement to succeed, especially when the separatist group lacks its own military force.
Case Studies: Why Some Movements Fail
1. Catalonia: Economic Power Meets Political Failure
Catalonia is one of the most high-profile examples of a modern independence movement that has failed to secure statehood. Despite a referendum in 2017 that showed overwhelming support for independence (90% voted in favor, although turnout was low at 43%), the Spanish government quickly intervened, declaring the referendum illegal. Catalonia’s attempt at independence plunged Spain into its worst political crisis in 40 years, and the Spanish government invoked Article 155 of its constitution to take control of the region, firing its leaders and dissolving its parliament.
Catalonia’s failure illustrates the significant barriers to independence in the modern world. Although the region has a strong economy (accounting for 20% of Spain’s GDP) and a distinct language and culture, it lacks the military and political power to enforce its independence. Spain’s economic reliance on Catalonia and the region’s importance to the country’s overall stability made it impossible for Spain to allow Catalonia to secede.
Moreover, without the backing of a powerful external actor, Catalonia’s independence movement was doomed to fail. Even if Catalonia had gained independence, it would have faced significant economic challenges, such as leaving the Eurozone and losing access to the European Central Bank.
2. Quebec: A Legal Path to Independence, But Waning Support
Unlike Catalonia, Quebec has a legal framework for achieving independence. Canada’s Clarity Act of 1999 outlines the process by which Quebec could negotiate independence following a successful referendum. However, despite holding two referendums on independence (the most recent in 1995), Quebec has yet to secure sovereignty. The 1995 referendum came extremely close, with the “No” side winning by just 0.58%.
But Quebec’s path to independence has been hindered by declining support for separatism. The rise of the sovereigntist party, Parti Québécois, has been sporadic, and while the movement experienced a resurgence in the 2020s, younger generations show less interest in sovereignty than their predecessors. Furthermore, Quebec’s economic reliance on federal transfers from the Canadian government raises questions about whether an independent Quebec could be financially viable.
3. Kurdistan: A Struggle Across Borders
Kurdistan represents another major independence movement that has failed to achieve statehood. Despite a referendum in 2017 in which over 92% of Kurds in Northern Iraq voted for independence, the region remains semi-autonomous within Iraq. Kurdish ambitions for independence are complicated by the fact that Kurdistan spans multiple countries, including Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq, all of which have significant Kurdish populations.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East makes Kurdish independence particularly challenging. Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran all have vested interests in preventing a Kurdish state from forming, as it would pose a significant threat to their territorial integrity. These countries have worked to suppress Kurdish militias and movements, ensuring that the Kurdish independence movement remains fractured.
The Role of Balance of Power Politics
One of the fundamental reasons why modern independence movements struggle to succeed is balance of power politics. States are constantly vying for resources and security, and the more powerful a state becomes, the more it can dominate smaller states and separatist groups. For an independence movement to succeed, it must not only have a strong sense of nationalism and a distinct identity but also be able to shift the balance of power in its favor.
In many cases, the military and political might of the existing state is too great for the separatist movement to overcome. This is evident in China’s treatment of separatist movements, Spain’s response to Catalonia, and Turkey’s ongoing military operations against Kurdish forces.
Even when separatist movements achieve independence, as was the case with South Sudan in 2011, they often face significant challenges in the post-independence period. Newly independent states must navigate complex international relations, build stable governments, and establish economic systems capable of supporting their populations. In many cases, these challenges prove too great, and the newly independent state collapses into internal conflict or becomes a failed state.
The Future of Independence Movements
As we move further into the 21st century, it is becoming increasingly clear that the success of independence movements is unlikely without the right geopolitical conditions. While nationalism and self-determination remain powerful forces, they are no longer enough to guarantee statehood.
In the era of multipolarity, where powerful states like China, Russia, and the United States dominate the global stage, smaller movements face an uphill battle. Balance of power politics ensures that larger states will continue to suppress separatist movements, and without foreign intervention or military backing, the dream of independence remains out of reach for many groups.
Movements like those in Catalonia, Quebec, and Kurdistan offer valuable lessons in the difficulties of achieving independence in the modern world. Despite having strong cultural identities and historical claims to autonomy, these regions are unlikely to gain sovereignty without significant shifts in international power dynamics.
FAQ Section
Q: Why do modern independence movements struggle to succeed? A: Modern independence movements face significant obstacles due to the rigid international landscape, where most states prioritize territorial integrity. The balance of power politics and the lack of foreign intervention further hinder the success of these movements.
Q: How did the age of revolution influence modern nationalism? A: The age of revolution in the late 18th and early 19th centuries sparked the rise of nationalism, leading to the formation of modern nation-states in Europe. This period redefined international relations and inspired nationalist movements around the world.
Q: What role does language play in independence movements? A: Language is a critical part of national identity, and promoting a common language often helps unite populations in their pursuit of independence. Regions like Catalonia, Quebec, and Kurdistan emphasize language as a central part of their cultural identity.
Q: Why did Catalonia’s independence movement fail? A: Catalonia’s independence movement failed due to Spain’s political and military dominance, as well as the region’s lack of military power and international support. Catalonia’s economic importance to Spain also played a significant role in preventing its secession.
Q: Is Quebec likely to achieve independence in the future? A: While Quebec has a legal framework for independence, declining support for separatism, especially among younger generations, makes the likelihood of Quebec achieving sovereignty uncertain.
Q: What are the biggest challenges facing newly independent states? A: Newly independent states face challenges such as establishing stable governments, building economic systems, and navigating complex international relations. Many newly independent states struggle to manage these issues, leading to internal conflict or economic collapse.
