As the war in Ukraine approaches another winter, the global conversation surrounding its future has taken a darker turn. Analyst Tim Wille, from the esteemed Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), has outlined a grim picture in his recent analysis, titled “The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine.” Wille’s arguments point to several converging factors—Western war fatigue, domestic challenges within Ukraine, and the unpredictability of the U.S. election—that could soon leave Ukraine in a vulnerable, submissive position at the negotiating table with Russia.
With the stakes higher than ever, the question looms large: Will Ukraine’s allies hold strong, or are we witnessing the slow beginning of a political shift that might ultimately betray Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty?
The International Mood: Growing Pessimism
The tone of pessimism has become more pronounced since Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent trip to the United States and his subsequent meetings across Europe. Zelensky presented his victory plan as a strategy to secure a lasting peace for Ukraine while ensuring the defeat of Russia on the battlefield. But the plan’s release, especially its reception in Washington and European capitals, suggests the international appetite for further escalation is dwindling.
Wille notes that while Zelensky’s plan could, in theory, decisively turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favor, its chances of implementation are slim. In fact, the plan has been met with skepticism in key Western circles, particularly in the U.S., where political dynamics are growing increasingly complicated.
The Growing War Fatigue in the West
War fatigue in the United States and Europe is becoming an undeniable factor. As the U.S. heads into its 2024 presidential election, support for Ukraine has become a divisive issue. With Donald Trump improving in the polls and adopting a less supportive stance toward Ukraine, there is growing concern that the U.S. could significantly scale back its involvement.
In Europe, many governments face domestic pressure to focus on internal matters, with inflation, energy costs, and political divisions taking precedence over foreign policy. Some are questioning the sustainability of continued military aid and economic support for Ukraine, especially as their own populations grow weary of the war.
Wille’s analysis underscores that the longer the war drags on, the harder it becomes for Ukraine to maintain the same level of international support. Meanwhile, Russia continues to press forward, even in the face of sanctions and global condemnation.
Ukraine’s Domestic Struggles: The Soviet Hangover
On the ground, Ukraine’s military efforts are strained. The frontline remains fluid, with the Ukrainian forces facing significant challenges, particularly in regions like Kupyansk and the Donbas, where Russian forces are making steady advances. Wille describes a “gradual progression” of Russian forces, with Ukrainian resistance being pushed back in several critical areas.
While Western military aid has been pivotal in Ukraine’s ability to withstand the Russian onslaught, Wille points to a persistent problem within Ukraine’s command structure. The lingering presence of Soviet-era military elements within Ukraine’s armed forces has been noted as a strategic disadvantage. These challenges, combined with Russia’s unyielding resolve, suggest a long and costly war of attrition, one that many in the West are growing less enthusiastic about.
Zelensky’s Victory Plan: An Ambitious Gamble
President Zelensky’s victory plan, presented to Ukraine’s parliament on October 16, 2023, lays out a five-point framework designed to solidify Ukraine’s future and defeat Russia. These points include:
- NATO Membership: An official invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, thereby making its future security non-negotiable.
- Increased Military Aid: A request for greater Western military support, with expanded supplies of arms and ammunition.
- Conventional Deterrence: Redeploying NATO systems in Ukraine to deter Russian aggression.
- Exploring Ukraine’s Mineral Deposits: An invitation for Western nations to invest in Ukraine’s rich mineral resources, including strategic materials like uranium and lithium.
- Post-War Security Contribution: Ukrainian forces replacing American troops in Europe to stabilize the continent post-war.
While ambitious, the plan’s reception has been tepid, at best. In particular, the idea of Ukraine joining NATO—and doing so in a way that bypasses diplomatic negotiations with Russia—has been seen as too provocative, raising concerns about further escalation.
Zelensky’s request for more military aid also met resistance. Western nations, grappling with their own political and economic pressures, have been reluctant to increase support. Wille argues that the Ukrainian leadership misread the international situation, overestimating the willingness of allies to follow through on such lofty demands.
The Strategic Missteps
Wille’s assessment is blunt: Zelensky’s plan has backfired. Rather than rallying support, it has revealed the stark limits of Western commitment. According to Wille, the plan’s fundamental flaw is that it doesn’t align with the realities on the ground. The West’s reluctance to escalate and the unpredictable future of American leadership mean that Ukraine’s high-stakes proposal has not resonated with its intended audience.
The political miscalculation also extends to the Ukrainian domestic front. Wille notes that Ukraine could have taken a more strategic approach, offering incentives to its allies, rather than making what some view as excessive demands. For example, Ukraine could have offered more concrete economic partnerships or military technology exchanges, which would have made the case for continued support more compelling for Western governments.
Critics within Ukraine, such as Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of the Ukrainian European Solidarity Party, echoed this sentiment, stating that Ukraine’s strategy has overly relied on others to do the heavy lifting.
The Looming 2024 U.S. Election: A Potential Turning Point
The specter of the 2024 U.S. presidential election casts a long shadow over Ukraine’s future. Donald Trump’s resurgence in the polls has sent ripples of concern through Kyiv, as Trump has been outspoken about reducing U.S. involvement in the war. Should Trump win, Ukraine could face an abrupt shift in U.S. foreign policy, leaving it even more isolated.
Even within the Democratic Party, there is growing fatigue with the war, and candidates like Kamala Harris have struggled to articulate a clear strategy for continued engagement. Zelensky’s support of Harris could prove a miscalculation if Trump does win, leaving Ukraine with few avenues for recourse.
Could Ukraine Have Taken a Different Path?
What could Zelensky have done differently? According to Wille, Ukraine should have focused on offering its own contributions to the war effort—demonstrating a willingness to bear more of the burden, even as it requests help. Lowering the conscription age, for instance, could show the world that Ukraine is prepared to make even greater sacrifices to win the war.
Additionally, taking a more individualized approach to each of its allies—tailoring specific offers to countries like Germany, France, Italy, and Poland—could have yielded better results. Rather than a one-size-fits-all request for help, Ukraine could have pursued military aid in exchange for contracts related to the post-war rebuilding of Ukrainian cities, or offered access to its emerging drone and missile technology.
Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Future
The situation for Ukraine is precarious, and Wille’s analysis suggests that the country is fast approaching a critical juncture. Western support remains essential, but it is not guaranteed, and Ukraine’s leadership will need to adapt quickly to the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Zelensky’s victory plan, while ambitious, may have been a misstep—failing to account for the war fatigue in the West and the political realities of a deeply divided United States. As the war drags on, Ukraine must find ways to secure its own future, even as it faces increasing pressure to negotiate from a position of weakness.
Does this mean Ukraine is destined for betrayal? Not necessarily. But as Wille notes, the path to victory will require a more nuanced approach—one that is grounded in the harsh realities of international politics, rather than in aspirations alone.
FAQ Section
1. What is Zelensky’s victory plan?
Zelensky’s victory plan is a five-point strategy to secure Ukraine’s future, focusing on joining NATO, increasing military aid, and encouraging Western investments in Ukraine’s resources.
2. Why is there war fatigue in the West?
After over a year of conflict, economic strains, political divisions, and domestic priorities in countries like the U.S. and European nations have made continued military and economic support for Ukraine more challenging.
3. How does the 2024 U.S. election impact Ukraine?
With Donald Trump gaining momentum in the polls and his stance on reducing U.S. involvement in Ukraine, the election could drastically shift U.S. foreign policy, potentially leaving Ukraine with less support.
4. What strategic mistakes has Ukraine made?
Analysts like Wille argue that Ukraine has over-relied on Western support without offering enough in return, misjudging the international situation, and failing to create a more flexible, realistic plan for continued aid.
5. Could Ukraine still win the war?
While the war is far from over, Wille suggests that Ukraine needs to respond better to the changing geopolitical landscape and offer more to its allies if it hopes to secure a lasting victory.
