Introduction
The war in Syria, which erupted in 2011, has profoundly altered the country and reverberated across the globe. With over 600,000 lives lost and 13 million displaced, this conflict has evolved from an internal civil war into a proxy battlefield for regional and global powers. Although the intensity of fighting has decreased in recent years, Syria remains divided and precariously balanced. The question looms: is the fragile peace sustainable, or could Syria’s powder keg explode again?
This article unravels Syria’s current situation, examines the players involved, and explores the possibilities for the future of this war-ravaged nation.
The Roots of the Syrian Conflict
Syria’s war began as a civil uprising against President Bashar al-Assad but quickly escalated into one of the most complex armed conflicts in modern history. Initially, the conflict pitted the Assad regime, supported by Russia and Iran, against the Free Syrian Army and its backers in the West, Turkey, and Gulf states.
The emergence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014 added a new dimension to the war, drawing in additional international interventions. By 2020, Assad had reestablished control over western and central Syria with the help of his allies. However, the country remains fragmented:
- Western Syria: Controlled by Assad’s forces, supported by Russia and Iran.
- Idlib Province: Held by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group with ties to al-Qaeda.
- Northern Syria: Under Turkish influence and the Syrian National Army (SNA), composed of anti-Assad Sunni fighters.
- Eastern Syria: Dominated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the United States.
Current Dynamics: The Syrian Puzzle in 2024
1. Assad’s Consolidation and Diplomatic Maneuvers
After years of isolation, Bashar al-Assad has worked to normalize relations with Arab states, culminating in Syria’s return to the Arab League in 2023. Despite this diplomatic progress, tensions persist with Turkey, whose forces occupy parts of northern Syria. Assad insists on the withdrawal of Turkish troops as a precondition for further normalization—a demand Ankara has yet to meet.
2. Turkey’s Strategic Shifts
Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has shifted its strategy over the years, focusing on countering Kurdish aspirations for autonomy along its southern border. Turkish-backed forces, including the SNA, remain active in northern Syria, frequently clashing with Kurdish forces and occasionally Assad’s troops. While Ankara has expressed interest in normalizing ties with Damascus, its actions remain constrained by domestic politics and the allegiance of its Syrian proxies.
3. The Kurdish Factor
The Kurdish-led SDF controls much of northeastern Syria and operates under the protection of U.S. forces. Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the PKK, a Kurdish separatist group it considers a terrorist organization. Any Turkish-Syrian reconciliation is likely to hinge on dismantling Kurdish autonomy—a prospect opposed by the U.S.
4. Jihadist Groups and Idlib
Idlib remains a hotspot. Controlled by HTS, the province has seen sporadic clashes between jihadist forces and Assad’s troops. The situation is further complicated by Russian airstrikes and Turkey’s uneasy relationship with HTS, which operates independently despite occasional cooperation.
Key Flashpoints in the Syrian Conflict
The Northern Front: Turkish-Backed Forces vs. Kurds
The Turkish-controlled areas of Aleppo Province remain unstable, with frequent infighting among SNA factions. Despite their allegiance to Turkey, these groups pursue their own agendas, often engaging in bloody disputes over territory and resources.
Idlib: A Fragile Ceasefire
The tenuous truce in Idlib, brokered by Turkey and Russia, is under constant threat. Recent escalations, including increased Syrian artillery shelling and Russian airstrikes, signal the potential for renewed conflict. HTS mobilizations have also heightened tensions, raising fears of a large-scale offensive.
Eastern Syria: The Kurdish Autonomous Zone
The SDF’s control over northeastern Syria is a source of contention for both Turkey and Assad. Turkey views the Kurdish autonomy as a threat, while Assad sees the area as an integral part of Syria. The continued presence of U.S. troops complicates any efforts to resolve this impasse.
The Role of External Powers
- Russia: A critical ally of Assad, Russia’s influence in Syria is substantial but constrained by its involvement in Ukraine.
- Turkey: Balancing domestic and regional priorities, Ankara’s actions in Syria are pivotal but often contradictory.
- The United States: Focused on countering ISIS and supporting the SDF, U.S. policy limits the ambitions of both Assad and Turkey.
- Iran and Hezbollah: While still significant players, their influence has waned as Assad seeks to diversify his alliances.
What Lies Ahead?
Scenarios for Syria’s Future
- Renewed Violence: Rising tensions in Idlib and northern Syria could lead to a resumption of large-scale fighting, particularly if ceasefire agreements break down.
- Stalemate: The current divisions could persist, with sporadic skirmishes but no major offensives.
- Diplomatic Breakthrough: A normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria could stabilize northern Syria, though this would require significant compromises.
The Role of International Actors
The decisions made in Moscow, Ankara, and Washington will shape Syria’s future. Russian and Turkish cooperation is critical to maintaining the fragile peace, while U.S. support for the Kurds continues to be a thorn in Ankara’s side.
FAQs
Q1: What is the current state of the Syrian war?
The large-scale conflict has subsided, but Syria remains divided into zones controlled by Assad, Turkey, HTS, and the Kurds. Tensions and skirmishes continue, especially in Idlib and northern Syria.
Q2: Why is Idlib significant?
Idlib is the last major stronghold of anti-Assad forces, primarily controlled by HTS. The province is a flashpoint for clashes between jihadists, Turkish-backed forces, and Assad’s army.
Q3: What is Turkey’s role in Syria?
Turkey supports the Syrian National Army and occupies parts of northern Syria. It seeks to counter Kurdish autonomy and maintain influence in the region.
Q4: How has Russia influenced the conflict?
Russia’s military intervention in 2015 turned the tide in Assad’s favor. Moscow continues to support Assad while mediating between conflicting interests in the region.
Q5: Could the conflict reignite?
The potential for renewed violence remains high, especially in Idlib and northern Syria. External actors like Turkey and Russia will play a key role in determining whether the fragile ceasefire holds.
