The Battle of Aleppo: Not 2012, But 2024
Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, has been a battleground and a symbol of resilience for over a decade of civil war. Yet, the events of late November 2024 marked a decisive and shocking chapter: the fall of Aleppo to rebel forces led by the coalition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). In just a few days, frozen battle lines dissolved into chaos as rebels captured territory at lightning speed, leaving the Assad regime in full retreat.
This rapid offensive, dubbed “Operation Deterrence of Aggression,” has reignited discussions about Syria’s future, raising urgent questions about the regime’s stability, the role of foreign powers, and the potential for an all-out resurgence of civil war.
A Country at War: Setting the Stage
Syria’s Current Power Players
Understanding the battle requires stepping back to assess the tangled web of alliances and rivalries within Syria:
- The Assad Regime:
Controlling much of the country’s heartland, including Damascus and Homs, Bashar al-Assad’s forces have faced ongoing pressure but maintained significant territorial dominance until the recent offensive. - HTS and the Rebel Coalition:
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously linked to al-Qaeda, controls Idlib Province. Over recent years, it has claimed to distance itself from extremism, focusing instead on governance and regional stability. - The Kurds of Rojava:
The Kurdish-controlled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria has maintained relative peace in its territories but remains wary of Turkish aggression and broader instability. - Foreign Powers:
- Russia: A steadfast backer of the Assad regime, providing air support and advisors.
- Turkey: Supporting Syrian rebels in the north while conducting operations against Kurdish forces.
- The U.S.: Maintaining a limited counterinsurgency presence in Syria’s southeast.
The Lead-Up to Aleppo’s Fall
For months, tensions simmered in Idlib Province, where HTS had fortified its position amid escalating regime bombardments. The Assad regime appeared to be probing for weaknesses, launching artillery and drone strikes against HTS-held areas. However, rather than weaken the rebels, this strategy galvanized them into action.
Operation Deterrence of Aggression
On November 27, HTS launched its counteroffensive. Using tactics honed over years of conflict, the rebels overwhelmed regime forces in a series of swift, coordinated attacks:
- Day 1: Over 20 towns and villages fell within 12 hours, with HTS breaching the first line of Aleppo’s defenses. Advanced weaponry captured during the assault included tanks, anti-tank missiles, and even Russian military equipment.
- Day 2: Rebel forces advanced to within 3 kilometers of Aleppo, severing the critical M5 Highway and cutting off reinforcements from Damascus.
The Fall of Aleppo
By November 29, the regime’s position in Aleppo was untenable. Troops abandoned key defensive positions, including the governor’s palace, intelligence directorates, and Aleppo International Airport. Videos on social media depicted scenes of panicked retreat, with abandoned vehicles and equipment littering the highways.
HTS forces quickly established control, reassuring local communities, including Aleppo’s significant Christian population, of their safety. The rebels also demonstrated a readiness for governance, deploying emergency response teams to restore basic services and clear debris.
What Happens Next?
Assad Regime on the Defensive
While the regime’s forces regroup, the fall of Aleppo exposes severe vulnerabilities:
- Brittle Defense Lines:
Long reliant on artillery and air superiority, Assad’s ground forces proved ineffective under pressure. - Foreign Support Under Strain:
Russia and Iran, key backers of the regime, face their own challenges, potentially limiting their ability to assist.
Rebel Ambitions
HTS and its allies appear poised for further gains, advancing southward along the M5 Highway. Control of key cities like Hama and Homs could shift the balance of power entirely, with Damascus itself becoming vulnerable.
The Role of Foreign Powers
The involvement of Turkey, Russia, and the U.S. will shape the conflict’s trajectory. Turkey’s support of HTS-aligned forces may heighten tensions with Kurdish factions, while Russia’s response to its proxy’s collapse remains uncertain.
FAQs
Why is Aleppo’s fall significant?
Aleppo’s fall marks a major setback for the Assad regime, exposing vulnerabilities and signaling a potential resurgence of broader conflict in Syria.
Who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)?
HTS is a rebel coalition formerly linked to al-Qaeda. Though designated a terrorist organization by multiple countries, it has shifted focus toward regional governance and stability in recent years.
What does this mean for civilians in Aleppo?
While HTS has made assurances of civilian safety, the city remains vulnerable to airstrikes and further conflict as the regime attempts to retake it.
Could this lead to Assad’s downfall?
While the fall of Aleppo is a significant blow, Assad’s control over Damascus and support from allies like Russia and Iran make an immediate regime collapse unlikely.
