Introduction
The conflict in Syria has taken yet another dramatic turn. On December 8th, 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had clung to power for over 50 years, fell in the face of a swift and devastating offensive by jihadist groups. What began as a series of calculated strikes by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has spiraled into a collapse of the Syrian Arab Army, leaving Syria fractured and its future precariously balanced.
While the fall of Assad marks the end of an era, it is far from the end of Syria’s chaos. The country remains a battleground for competing factions, external powers, and potential insurgencies. In this blog, we’ll unpack the events leading to Assad’s downfall, the current state of Syria, and what the future might hold for this embattled nation.
The Fall of Assad’s Regime
The Lightning Offensive
On November 27th, HTS launched a surprise operation named “Deterring Aggression.” Targeting the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama, the offensive rapidly dismantled the Syrian Arab Army’s defenses. Within days, strategic positions such as Aleppo and the surrounding countryside fell, with little to no resistance.
- Key Losses for the Syrian Army:
- Aleppo: The city and its suburbs were overtaken in less than three days.
- Idlib Province: Quickly reclaimed by HTS, with key supply routes severed.
- Hama: Attempts at reorganization faltered, culminating in the city’s fall by December 5th.
Disorganized Defense
The Syrian Army’s collapse was a result of multiple factors:
- Lack of External Support: With diminished Russian involvement and Hezbollah redirecting its focus to Israel, Assad was left isolated.
- Economic Strain: Sanctions and a collapsing economy left soldiers unpaid and unmotivated, while rampant corruption sapped military effectiveness.
- Structural Weakness: Years of mismanagement and demobilization eroded the army’s cohesion, leaving it ill-prepared for a renewed offensive.
The Humanitarian Toll
The rapid advances of HTS and other factions displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians, particularly in Kurdish regions. Reports of looting, forced displacement, and civilian executions have emerged, further exacerbating Syria’s humanitarian crisis.
Power Struggles in Post-Assad Syria
The fall of Assad has unleashed a flurry of competing factions vying for control over Syria’s fragmented territories.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
HTS now controls Syria’s four largest cities—Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama—alongside significant portions of the countryside. Under its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, HTS has presented itself as a pragmatic Islamist force, offering amnesty to deserters and guarantees of minority protection. However, their consolidation of power faces challenges, including potential rivalries with other factions.
Turkey and the Syrian National Army (SNA)
The Turkish-backed SNA has launched its own offensives, targeting Kurdish-controlled areas in the north. Turkish artillery and air support have allowed the SNA to secure territories like Manbij, but tensions with HTS could erupt into conflict.
Kurdish Forces
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have lost ground to both HTS and the SNA. While the SDF retains control of certain regions east of the Euphrates, their ability to hold these areas without external support is uncertain.
Israel’s Role
Taking advantage of the chaos, Israel has intensified its airstrikes, targeting military assets and infrastructure to prevent them from falling into HTS hands. Israeli forces have also seized areas near the Golan Heights, further complicating the regional picture.
The Future of Syria
Continued Fragmentation
With Assad gone, Syria remains fractured. HTS’s dominance is far from secure, and rival factions like the SNA and SDF are unlikely to concede power without a fight. Additionally, dormant Islamic State cells may capitalize on the chaos to stage a resurgence.
External Interventions
- Turkey: Likely to expand its influence, particularly in northern Syria.
- Russia: Diminished but still present, focusing on securing its naval base in Tartus.
- Iran: Likely to recalibrate its strategy following the loss of key Syrian territories.
- Israel: Continuing to conduct airstrikes and border operations to safeguard its interests.
Humanitarian Crisis
The fall of Assad has displaced hundreds of thousands, with many fleeing to neighboring countries. The dire humanitarian situation requires immediate international attention to prevent further suffering.
Lessons from Assad’s Downfall
- Economic Resilience is Key: Assad’s inability to address Syria’s economic woes, compounded by sanctions under the Caesar Act, undermined his regime’s stability.
- Unity Matters: The fragmented and corrupt Syrian Army failed to mount an effective defense, highlighting the importance of cohesive leadership.
- External Support is Crucial: Assad’s reliance on foreign allies proved to be a double-edged sword, as their withdrawal accelerated his collapse.
FAQ: Understanding Syria’s New Reality
1. Why did Assad’s regime collapse so quickly?
A combination of economic strain, loss of external support, corruption, and structural weaknesses within the Syrian Army led to its rapid disintegration.
2. Who controls Syria now?
HTS has emerged as the dominant force, controlling major cities and significant territories. However, other factions like the SNA and SDF still hold sway in various regions.
3. What role does Turkey play in Syria’s conflict?
Turkey backs the SNA and seeks to weaken Kurdish forces near its border. Its influence is likely to grow as it capitalizes on the current chaos.
4. How has Israel responded to Assad’s fall?
Israel has intensified its airstrikes to prevent military assets from falling into HTS hands and has taken control of areas near the Golan Heights.
5. What’s next for Syria?
Continued fragmentation and conflict are likely, with rival factions competing for power. Humanitarian crises and potential insurgencies add further uncertainty.
Conclusion
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a turning point in Syria’s protracted conflict. While it brings an end to over five decades of Assad family rule, it opens a new chapter of uncertainty and power struggles. As rival factions vie for control, Syria’s future remains as volatile as ever. International stakeholders must act swiftly to address the humanitarian crisis and work toward stabilizing this fractured nation.
