Australia is often referred to as “The Lucky Country,” a phrase popularized by Donald Horne. While many interpret this as a compliment, Horne’s original intent was quite the opposite—he argued that Australia’s leadership had simply stumbled upon good fortune rather than earning it. Indeed, Australia is blessed with stunning landscapes, a robust economy, and a high quality of life, but it also faces significant challenges. One of the most persistent issues is its low and unevenly distributed population.
Despite being almost the same size as the contiguous United States, Australia has a mere 27 million residents, compared to the US’s 333 million. Even within the country, most of the population is concentrated in a few urban centers, with vast inland areas largely uninhabited. But why is this the case? What factors have shaped Australia’s demographic structure? And what does the future hold for the nation’s population?
In this deep dive, we’ll explore the history, geography, and economic factors that have led to Australia’s unique population distribution. We’ll also examine how immigration, climate change, and declining birth rates will shape the country’s future.
Australia’s Indigenous Population: A Tragic Decline
Before European colonization, Australia was home to the First Nations peoples, consisting of Aboriginal Australians and the Torres Strait Islanders. These groups had lived on the continent for tens of thousands of years, forming a rich and diverse range of cultures.
Pre-Colonization Population Estimates
Estimating the Indigenous population before British settlement is difficult, with estimates ranging from 314,000 to 1.5 million people. Regardless of the exact figure, what is certain is that colonization led to a catastrophic population decline.
The Impact of British Colonization
The British began colonizing Australia in 1788, declaring it terra nullius (nobody’s land), despite the presence of the First Nations peoples. The settlers brought devastating consequences, including:
- Disease: Smallpox, measles, and typhus wiped out large portions of the Indigenous population.
- Violence and Massacres: Colonists drove Indigenous communities off their land, often resorting to massacres. Historian Professor Lyndall Ryan has documented over 400 massacres, killing at least 10,000 people.
- Forced Assimilation: Policies such as the Half-Caste Act (1886) and the Welfare Act (1909-1943) led to the forced removal of Indigenous children, known as the Stolen Generations.
By 1933, the Indigenous population had reached its lowest recorded point—just 73,828 people. Since then, numbers have slowly recovered, with First Nations peoples now making up 3.9% of Australia’s population.
Colonial Australia: A Slow Start to Growth
British settlement of Australia was initially slow. By 1868, more than 162,000 convicts had been transported to the colony, yet the total population was only around one million. The country’s growth began to accelerate in the late 19th century due to two key factors:
- The Agricultural Expansion: As settlers moved inland, they developed farming and grazing lands, supporting a growing population.
- The Gold Rush: From the mid-1800s, gold discoveries in Victoria and New South Wales brought a surge of immigrants.
Despite these booms, Australia’s population remained relatively small compared to other settler nations like the US and Canada.
Post-World War II: The Immigration Boom
The most significant period of population growth in Australia came after World War II. Much like the US in earlier decades, Australia positioned itself as a land of opportunity, rich in natural resources but lacking manpower.
Key Immigration Trends
- Between 1945 and 1972, Australia’s population growth rate nearly doubled due to high immigration.
- Without migration, Australia’s population today would be around 9 million people lower.
- Today, around half of Australia’s residents are immigrants or the children of immigrants.
While immigration has helped sustain Australia’s population growth, birth rates have been steadily declining, and migration alone may not be enough to prevent future population shrinkage.
Population Distribution: A Country of Empty Spaces
Australia’s population is not only small but also highly concentrated. Over 76% of Australians live on just 33% of the land, primarily in the southeast and southwest coastal cities.
Key Population Centers
- Sydney: 5.5 million people, density of 8,660 per km².
- Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth: Each hosts millions, forming the economic and administrative hubs of the country.
Meanwhile, vast inland areas remain almost empty. In contrast to the US, where population centers are spread across the country, Australia’s center of population has remained largely unchanged since 1861.
Why is the Interior So Empty?
The answer lies in geography and climate. More than 70% of Australia is arid or semi-arid, making it the second driest continent in the world (after Antarctica). Factors include:
- Low rainfall: The national average is just 473 mm per year, compared to 750 mm in the US and 1,380 mm in the UK.
- Extreme heat and high evaporation rates, making farming difficult.
- Poor soil quality, especially in the Outback.
Even in regions suitable for agriculture or livestock, vast land areas require only a small workforce. For example, the massive Rawlinna sheep station spans 10,000 km² but is run by just 20 staff members.
The Future of Australia’s Population
Australia faces several demographic challenges that will shape its future:
1. Declining Birth Rates
Australia’s fertility rate is 1.7 children per woman—below the replacement level of 2.1. This trend is driven by:
- Rising living costs, making it harder for young couples to afford children.
- Career pressures, with women shouldering the majority of unpaid domestic labor.
- A shift in societal priorities, with smaller families becoming the norm.
2. Immigration as a Lifeline
Australia relies heavily on immigration to sustain its population. However, the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily halted migration, exposing vulnerabilities. While immigration has since rebounded, experts warn that current policies may not be sufficient.
3. Climate Change and Livability
Climate change threatens to make parts of Australia even less habitable. According to projections, the country will face:
- Rising sea levels affecting coastal cities.
- Increased droughts in agricultural regions.
- More frequent and severe wildfires.
These environmental changes may further limit population growth and redistribution efforts.
4. Economic and Geopolitical Concerns
A smaller population poses risks for Australia’s economy and international standing. A low domestic market and a reliance on exports—especially to China—could make Australia vulnerable in global trade. Additionally, a smaller workforce could mean skill shortages in key industries.
5. Alternative Perspectives: Is a Smaller Population a Bad Thing?
Not everyone sees population decline as a crisis. Some experts argue that a lower birth rate is a sign of economic success, as people no longer need to have many children to secure their future. Groups like Sustainable Population Australia advocate for reduced migration, arguing that a stable or smaller population is better for the environment.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
Australia’s population challenges are complex. Its small and concentrated population is a product of geography, history, and economic factors. While immigration has sustained growth, birth rates are declining, and climate change presents new threats. Some argue that a smaller population could be beneficial, while others warn of economic stagnation if Australia fails to grow.
The big question remains: how will Australia balance population sustainability with economic and environmental challenges? Whether through increased immigration, smarter urban planning, or technological advancements in agriculture, the country must make critical choices about its demographic future.
One thing is certain: the “Lucky Country” will need more than luck to navigate the decades ahead.
FAQ: Australia’s Population Issues
Why is Australia’s population so small?
A combination of historical factors, harsh geography, and a reliance on industries that don’t require a large workforce.
Could Australia’s population shrink in the future?
Yes, projections suggest that without migration, Australia’s population could start declining by 2054.
How does climate change impact Australia’s population?
Climate change is making parts of Australia less habitable, reducing the potential for inland settlement and agriculture.
What is the role of immigration?
Immigration is the main driver of Australia’s population growth, compensating for low birth rates.
Is a smaller population necessarily bad?
Not everyone thinks so. Some experts argue that a stable or smaller population could be more sustainable in the long run.