Introduction: The Balkans on the Edge
Tensions are rising rapidly in Serbia. What began as a protest over government corruption and negligence has escalated into the largest wave of demonstrations in modern Serbian history. The government of President Aleksandar Vučić is responding with increasing repression, fueling the anger of citizens who see this as their last chance to stop an authoritarian slide.
But the crisis extends beyond Serbia’s borders. In Kosovo and Bosnia, ethnic Serb paramilitary groups have grown bolder, clashing with local authorities as the Serbian government offers both material and political support. Nationalist rhetoric from Belgrade is growing more aggressive, and regional analysts fear that Serbia’s increasingly militarized state could soon use external conflict as a means to suppress domestic unrest.
With a collapsing political order, escalating violence, and no clear path to resolution, Serbia’s crisis could easily spiral into war. But how did things get this bad, and is there still time to stop what seems like an inevitable descent into chaos?
A Brief History of Conflict in the Balkans
Understanding the current crisis in Serbia requires a look back at the violent breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
The Fall of Yugoslavia and the Rise of Serbian Nationalism
For much of the 20th century, the Balkans were united under the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Led for decades by Josip Broz Tito, the country was able to hold together despite deep ethnic and religious divisions. However, after Tito’s death in 1980, nationalism surged across the region, and by the early 1990s, Yugoslavia had begun to fall apart.
Serbia, under the leadership of Slobodan Milošević, sought to maintain control over Yugoslav territories through brutal military campaigns, particularly in Croatia, Bosnia, and later, Kosovo. The Bosnian War (1992-1995) saw horrific ethnic cleansing campaigns, with Serb forces responsible for the genocide of over 8,000 Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica.
By 1999, Serbia was engaged in another war—this time in Kosovo, where ethnic Albanians were fighting for independence. In response to widespread Serbian war crimes, NATO launched a 78-day bombing campaign, forcing Milošević to withdraw from Kosovo.
By the early 2000s, Milošević was out of power and later died in prison while awaiting trial for war crimes. However, the legacy of Serbian nationalism remained deeply embedded in the country’s political culture, setting the stage for the rise of Aleksandar Vučić.
Serbia’s Current Crisis: Protests, Corruption, and Crackdowns
The Train Station Collapse That Sparked a Movement
The recent crisis in Serbia began with a seemingly isolated event: the deadly collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad on November 1, 2024. The structure, renovated under a Chinese-backed infrastructure project, had not been properly reconstructed, leading to the deaths of 15 people, including two children.
At first, the public response was somber—vigils, funerals, and calls for accountability. However, when the government refused to release documents related to the project and suppressed demands for a transparent investigation, outrage exploded into protests.
The Protest Movement Gains Momentum
Within days, Serbia was engulfed in demonstrations. Protesters accused the government of corruption and negligence, arguing that officials had siphoned money from Chinese infrastructure projects while leaving the public to suffer the consequences.
The movement rapidly escalated, with 100,000 people marching in Belgrade—the largest protest in Serbia’s history. The demonstrations spread across the country, with university students, farmers, lawyers, and workers joining in. Red handprints—symbolizing “blood on your hands”—became a powerful symbol of the movement.
Government Crackdowns and the Growing Risk of Violence
Initially, Vučić’s government attempted to de-escalate, launching investigations into the collapse. But as protests intensified, the state responded with increasing force:
- Masked enforcers, suspected to be government-affiliated, attacked students.
- Drivers affiliated with the ruling SNS party began using cars to ram into protesters.
- Pro-government media launched smear campaigns against opposition figures.
Rather than breaking the movement, these crackdowns only fueled further anger. Serbian lawyers launched a week-long strike, primary and secondary schools staged mass walkouts, and private companies joined nationwide general strikes.
The Resignation of the Prime Minister: A Hollow Victory?
On January 28, 2025, Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigned, citing the injury of a protester and the need to “calm tensions.” However, opposition leaders saw this as a deliberate political maneuver to pacify protesters without addressing their core demands.
President Vučić remains in power, and his nationalist base appears more emboldened than ever.
A Growing Regional Crisis: Serbia’s Nationalist Ambitions
While Serbia’s internal crisis deepens, its external ambitions are becoming increasingly aggressive.
Tensions in Kosovo
Kosovo, home to nearly 100,000 ethnic Serbs, declared independence from Serbia in 2008—a status that Belgrade still refuses to recognize. Over the past few years, tensions have skyrocketed:
- Serbia stationed troops along the Kosovo border in response to minor local incidents.
- Kosovo banned Serbian currency, cutting off financial aid to ethnic Serbs.
- Serbian paramilitary groups have carried out attacks on Kosovar police and infrastructure.
The region remains a powder keg, and any violent provocation—real or staged—could push Serbia into military intervention.
The Republic of Srpska and the Dismantling of Bosnia
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republic of Srpska (RS), a Serb-dominated autonomous entity, is inching closer to full secession. In December 2023, its leader Milorad Dodik declared that RS would declare independence if Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency.
Serbia and RS have increasingly coordinated their policies, raising fears that Belgrade may support Bosnian Serb secession—potentially reigniting the Bosnian War.
The Geopolitical Chessboard: Who Will Stop Serbia?
A Weak EU and NATO Response
- The European Union has condemned Serbia’s democratic backsliding but has little leverage, as Serbian public support for EU membership has plummeted.
- NATO has extended an invitation to Serbia, but Vučić has refused, knowing that Serbian nationalists vehemently oppose NATO due to the 1999 bombing campaign.
Serbia’s Growing Ties with Russia and China
- Russia remains a steadfast ally, supporting Serbia’s nationalist ambitions and blocking Kosovo’s UN membership.
- China has deep economic influence in Serbia through the Belt and Road Initiative, and its investment has enriched Serbian elites.
With no real deterrent from the West, Serbia has little to lose and much to gain by escalating its nationalist agenda.
Conclusion: Is War in Serbia Inevitable?
Serbia stands at a crossroads. The protest movement is at its peak, but the government has every incentive to escalate repression rather than reform. If the protests fail, Vučić will emerge stronger than ever, and Serbia’s nationalist expansionism could plunge the Balkans into another war.
The only way to avoid conflict may be for protesters to continue their struggle without resorting to violence—but with armed nationalists in the streets and Serbia’s military rapidly modernizing, time is running out.
The Balkans are once again at the brink. The world must pay attention.
