For decades, Western security analysts have feared a potential conflict with China, a nuclear-armed superpower with the world’s second-largest economy. Not long ago, many predicted that China would soon surpass the United States.
But they’re not saying that anymore.
Instead of marching toward global dominance, China is faltering under the weight of economic decline, demographic crisis, and international pushback. While this might sound like good news for the U.S., the reality is far more alarming.
A weakening China is a dangerous China.
As China faces mounting challenges, it risks falling into the Peaking Power Trap—the idea that a rising power becomes most aggressive when it realizes that its window to reshape the world is closing. This isn’t just theory. History shows that declining powers, from Germany before World War I to Imperial Japan, often lash out when they feel cornered.
China’s growing military assertiveness, economic instability, and strategic desperation suggest that the world may be on the brink of something far more dangerous than a Cold War-style rivalry. Let’s explore why China’s current trajectory is pushing global conflict closer to reality.
China’s Growing Aggression: The Final Push Before the Fall?
China has always been ambitious, but its actions in recent years have become more aggressive and unpredictable. Several flashpoints highlight Beijing’s increasing willingness to use military force, coercion, and cyber warfare to achieve its strategic goals.
1. Taiwan: The Ultimate Prize
China’s number one foreign policy goal is to annex Taiwan, which it views as a breakaway province. Taking Taiwan would serve two purposes:
- Complete the unfinished Chinese Civil War by bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control.
- Break the First Island Chain, a series of U.S.-aligned territories that restrict China’s naval expansion.
China has ramped up military provocations, including simulated attacks and military exercises surrounding the island. In December 2024, Beijing deployed 90 warships and coast guard vessels near Taiwan, signaling its growing impatience.
With CIA Director William Burns revealing that China wants the capability to take Taiwan by 2027, the world is on high alert. A Chinese invasion would likely trigger a direct U.S. military response, leading to an unprecedented global crisis.
2. The South China Sea: A Powder Keg
China claims nearly the entire South China Sea, using the controversial Nine-Dash Line to justify its territorial ambitions. Beijing has used “gray zone” tactics to slowly take control, including:
- Ramming and harassing foreign vessels
- Firing military-grade lasers at ships
- Blocking access to key waterways
This has put China in direct conflict with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. In response, Manila and Hanoi formed a maritime security alliance in August 2024, signaling a growing anti-China coalition.
Satellite imagery also reveals China’s rapid militarization of artificial islands, turning them into heavily armed military bases. The South China Sea is now one miscalculation away from a full-blown naval conflict.
3. Border Disputes with India and Bhutan
China is not just expanding at sea—it’s pushing its land borders, too.
- Himalayan Conflict: Since 2013, Chinese forces have repeatedly clashed with India along their disputed border. The worst incident in 2020 led to deaths on both sides.
- Bhutan Under Threat: China has made aggressive territorial claims to 12% of Bhutan’s land, putting the tiny country in a precarious position.
By challenging both India and Bhutan, China is testing how far it can push before sparking a major conflict.
4. Cyber Warfare & Espionage Against the West
China’s hybrid warfare strategy extends beyond military aggression. Cyberattacks, espionage, and infrastructure sabotage are all part of Beijing’s toolkit.
Some recent examples include:
- Massive telecom hacks: In November 2024, China-linked hackers infiltrated Verizon and AT&T, potentially intercepting U.S. government communications.
- Baltic Sea sabotage: Chinese vessels have been damaging undersea data cables, cutting off key communication lines in Europe.
As tensions rise, China’s cyberwarfare efforts will only intensify, posing a major national security threat to the U.S. and its allies.
The Peaking Power Trap: Why China’s Decline is So Dangerous
The Peaking Power Trap is one of the most overlooked but critical geopolitical theories. It suggests that declining powers become most aggressive when they realize their ambitions may never be fulfilled.
History proves this pattern:
- Germany before WWI feared being surrounded by rival powers—leading to an arms race and eventual war.
- Imperial Japan in the 1930s saw its economic growth slowing and lashed out by invading its neighbors.
- Britain & France in 1956 launched the disastrous Suez Crisis, trying to hold onto their fading global influence.
Now, China is facing the same reality—its economic growth is collapsing, its population is shrinking, and its ambitions are slipping away.
When great powers feel time is running out, they often take desperate measures—and that’s what makes China’s decline so dangerous.
China’s Economic & Social Crises: A Ticking Time Bomb
China’s economic miracle is over. The country faces severe domestic crises, making the risk of foreign aggression even higher.
1. A Collapsing Economy
China’s economy grew at an average of 9% per year for decades. Now, it’s slowing to just 2-3% by 2030.
- Massive youth unemployment (21% in 2023) is fueling discontent.
- The real estate market is in freefall, with giants like Evergrande collapsing.
- The trade war with the U.S. is crushing exports.
2. A Demographic Crisis
China’s one-child policy (1979-2015) has backfired.
- The population is shrinking for the first time in 60 years.
- 300 million workers will retire in the next decade, straining the economy.
3. Growing Civil Unrest
Young Chinese are rejecting the system, launching movements like:
- “Tang Ping” (Lie Flat): A rejection of overwork culture.
- “Bai Lan” (Let It Rot): Giving up on career ambitions entirely.
For the Chinese Communist Party, which rules by promising prosperity, these trends are terrifying.
Is War Inevitable? The West Must Act Now
So what can be done to prevent a conflict with China?
The key is deterrence. China will only escalate aggression if it believes it can win—so the U.S. and its allies must close China’s window of opportunity as much as possible.
Steps to Strengthen Deterrence:
✔️ Increase U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
✔️ Expand Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.
✔️ Strengthen military alliances (QUAD, AUKUS, NATO-Asia partnerships).
✔️ Counter China’s economic coercion with supply chain diversification.
✔️ Improve cyber defenses to prevent Chinese hacking.
The Peaking Power Trap tells us that China may strike when it believes it has no other option. The best way to prevent this is to ensure China never sees an opportunity for success in the first place.
The world is entering the most dangerous phase of China’s rise—not because it is winning, but because it is losing.
And that is what makes Beijing more dangerous than ever before.
