Introduction: A City on the Edge
Manila, the capital of the Philippines, is a city of paradoxes. It is an economic powerhouse in Asia, yet it struggles with extreme congestion, poverty, and vulnerability to natural disasters. It is home to historical landmarks and colonial architecture, yet much of its population lives in shanty towns. It is the most densely populated city in the world, yet it continues to grow.
From the catastrophic 1968 Casiguran earthquake to the battle-scarred streets of World War II, Manila has faced immense challenges throughout its history. Today, with its population nearing 2 million people crammed into just 42.5 square kilometers, the city is at a breaking point.
How did Manila become the world’s most overcrowded metropolis, and what is being done to save it?
A Disaster That Exposed Manila’s Vulnerability: The Casiguran Earthquake
On August 2, 1968, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake shook Luzon, the largest island in the Philippines. The quake’s epicenter was in Casiguran, more than 200 km from Manila, but the most devastating consequence occurred in the city itself.
A high-rise building called the Ruby Tower collapsed, burying hundreds of its residents. A total of 268 people were killed, making up the overwhelming majority of the disaster’s 271 casualties.
Why Did the Ruby Tower Collapse?
The poor construction quality of the building was to blame.
- The Ruby Tower was built cheaply, costing just $250,000 at the time (around $2.5 million today).
- It was meant to house between 600 to 1,000 people but was constructed using subpar materials on unstable ground near the Pasig River mouth.
- The building simply could not withstand the tremors, leading to a tragedy that could have been avoided.
The disaster exposed the extreme vulnerability of Manila’s infrastructure, a problem that still persists today. With so many high-rise buildings crammed into a tiny land area, Manila remains highly susceptible to future earthquakes.
Manila: The Most Densely Populated City on Earth
A City Smaller than Liechtenstein
At first glance, Manila’s population of 1.8 million seems unremarkable. It is similar in size to cities like Warsaw, Poland, or Phoenix, Arizona. However, what sets Manila apart is its land area—a mere 42.5 square kilometers.
For comparison:
- Warsaw is six times larger than Manila.
- Phoenix is 15 times larger.
- Even tiny Liechtenstein, with just 40,000 people, has a larger land area than Manila.
To put it another way: Manila’s entire population is crammed into an area two-thirds the size of Scranton, Pennsylvania.
A Density That Defies Belief
Manila’s population density is an astonishing 45,000 people per square kilometer (118,000 per square mile).
For context:
- New York City has a population density of around 10,000 per square kilometer.
- Paris, known for its dense urban living, has 21,000 per square kilometer.
- Manila has twice the density of New York and more than double that of Paris.
Where Do People Live?
To accommodate this population, Manila has over 215 high-rise buildings taller than 150 meters. However, these are not enough to house everyone.
Instead, much of the population lives in informal settlements and overcrowded districts like:
- San Miguel – A middle-class district housing the Philippine Presidential Palace, with 20,000 people per square kilometer.
- Tondo – A shanty town with a staggering 75,000 people per square kilometer, where 650,000 residents live in just 8.5 square kilometers.
These overcrowded areas are vulnerable to disease, pollution, crime, and natural disasters—all of which pose major threats to the city’s residents.
A History of Uncontrolled Growth
From a Spanish Colony to an Overcrowded Megacity
- 1571 – Spanish settlers established Intramuros, the walled city that became Manila.
- 1898 – Manila remained the capital after Philippine independence.
- 1945 – The Battle of Manila during World War II destroyed much of the city, killing 100,000 people.
- 1976 – Manila regained its capital status after temporarily losing it to Quezon City.
- Today – The population has exploded, far exceeding the city’s infrastructure limits.
Failed Urban Planning
Manila’s modern layout was originally designed by American architect Daniel Burnham in 1904, but:
- It was intended for a city of just 800,000 people.
- World War II destroyed much of the infrastructure.
- Post-war rebuilding was rushed, leading to poorly planned neighborhoods and unstable buildings.
This lack of proper urban planning continues to haunt Manila to this day.
Disasters Waiting to Happen
Manila is one of the most disaster-prone cities in the world due to:
- Earthquakes – The West Valley Fault, similar to the San Andreas Fault, is due for a major earthquake.
- Typhoons – The city is part of the Pacific Typhoon Belt, suffering floods and landslides every year.
- Rising Sea Levels – Many areas, including Tondo and the Pasig River region, are barely above sea level.
The next big earthquake or typhoon could devastate Manila, just as the Casiguran earthquake did in 1968.
Can Manila Be Saved?
Massive Infrastructure Projects
The Philippine government has launched several ambitious projects to improve Manila’s situation, including:
- “Build, Build, Build” Program (2017-2022) – A $180 billion initiative to improve infrastructure.
- Metro Manila Subway (Expected by 2029) – A 21-km subway to ease traffic congestion.
- Clark Freeport Zone – A business hub in Pampanga to encourage businesses and residents to relocate.
Challenges Remain
Despite these efforts, many people simply do not want to leave Manila. Economic opportunities, social networks, and lack of viable alternatives keep the population concentrated.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte even predicted that Manila would become a “dead city” within 25 years if the situation is not resolved.
Conclusion: The Future of the World’s Most Crowded City
Manila’s overcrowding, weak infrastructure, and disaster risks make it one of the most vulnerable cities in the world. Despite rapid economic growth, overpopulation, poverty, and natural disasters continue to strain its resources.
Will massive infrastructure projects save the city? Or will Manila reach a breaking point?
One thing is certain: Manila’s fate will shape the future of the Philippines—for better or worse.
