Introduction
To call it Ukraine’s “week from hell” is almost an understatement. Not since the first Russian missiles struck Kyiv in February 2022 has Ukraine’s future looked this uncertain.
What began on Friday, February 28, 2025, with a shocking Oval Office blowup quickly spiraled into a series of devastating setbacks. The suspension of U.S. military aid, the cutoff of intelligence-sharing, and even reports that Trump’s allies were meeting with Ukrainian opposition figures to plot against President Volodymyr Zelensky all combined to create a crisis that seemed straight out of Vladimir Putin’s wildest dreams.
By March 7, Ukraine had not only lost vital support from its most powerful ally, but the United States was suddenly aligning with Russia at the United Nations and even considering easing sanctions on Moscow.
How did we get here? Why has Washington shifted from being Ukraine’s strongest supporter to treating Kyiv as an obstacle? And what does this mean for the future of the war—and global stability?
Let’s break it all down.
A Sudden, Dramatic Shift in U.S. Policy
In the three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, American support has been crucial. According to the Kiel Institute’s Support Tracker, the U.S. has been the single largest donor of military aid, contributing €64.1 billion ($70 billion), far outpacing Germany (€12.6 billion) and other allies.
But under Trump, that support collapsed almost overnight.
The first major blow came on March 4, 2025, when the U.S. suspended all military aid to Ukraine—even shipments that had already been approved under the Biden administration. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal warned that the lack of new air defense interceptors could put thousands of civilian lives at risk.
Military analysts noted that while Ukraine is less immediately dependent on U.S. aid than it was in earlier phases of the war, the long-term consequences could be disastrous.
Then came an even bigger shock: the suspension of real-time U.S. intelligence-sharing.
The Intelligence Cutoff: A Game-Changer for Russia
While the aid cutoff was expected to hurt Ukraine’s war effort over time, the loss of U.S. intelligence had an immediate and devastating impact:
🔴 Blind to Russian movements – Ukraine heavily relies on U.S. intelligence to track Russian troop movements and air strikes. Cutting this off weakens Ukraine’s battlefield awareness.
🔴 No early warnings for air raids – U.S. monitoring plays a key role in alerting Ukrainian civilians of incoming missile and drone attacks. Without it, thousands are more vulnerable than ever.
🔴 No more targeting help – The U.S. had been providing Ukraine with precise coordinates to help strike high-value Russian military assets. That advantage is now gone.
As Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor at The Economist, put it:
“This is a highly consequential move that is more important than the arms pause. It will significantly weaken and blind Ukraine.”
Beyond Aid and Intel: A Full-Scale Abandonment?
While the loss of military aid and intelligence is severe, the biggest shock was Washington’s diplomatic shift toward Russia.
Easing Sanctions on Russia?
On March 3, reports surfaced that the Trump administration was drafting plans to lift economic sanctions on Russia.
Prior to this, sanctions had been a major pressure point on Moscow’s economy. Experts warned that Russia was heading for a financial crisis by 2025 due to Western restrictions.
Lifting sanctions could:
✔️ Strengthen Russia’s war economy
✔️ Give Putin political breathing room
✔️ Reduce U.S. leverage in future negotiations
While Europe could maintain its own sanctions, the U.S. easing restrictions would send a dangerous signal.
Trump’s Team Meeting with Ukrainian Opposition?
Then, just when it seemed things couldn’t get worse, Politico reported that Trump allies had secretly met with Ukrainian opposition figures, including:
- Yulia Tymoshenko (former prime minister)
- Petro Poroshenko (former president)
The goal? Allegedly plotting ways to remove Zelensky from power.
This revelation stunned Ukraine. While Zelensky’s popularity has declined, polls still show him far ahead of any challenger. U.S. interference in Ukrainian leadership decisions further erodes trust between the two allies.
Why Is the U.S. Doing This?
Theory #1: Forcing Ukraine Into Peace Talks
Some believe Trump’s administration is using these moves to pressure Ukraine into negotiating with Russia.
As Keith Kellogg, U.S. Envoy to Ukraine, said:
“The push is to get them to engage in diplomatic activities… It’s a forcing function to get Ukraine to agree to a peace deal.”
The Problem?
✔️ No equal pressure on Russia – If the goal were diplomacy, the U.S. would also pressure Moscow to negotiate. Instead, Trump’s actions reward Russia and punish Ukraine.
✔️ Ukraine can’t afford a bad peace – A premature ceasefire would freeze Russian territorial gains, leaving millions of Ukrainians under occupation.
Theory #2: Shifting Focus to China
Another explanation is that the U.S. is abandoning Ukraine to focus on countering China.
As National Security Adviser Mike Waltz wrote before the election:
“The next president should urgently bring conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to a swift conclusion… and focus on countering the Chinese Communist Party.”
The Problem?
✔️ Alienating U.S. allies – Europe still sees Russia as a major threat. Abandoning Ukraine could drive Europe closer to China.
✔️ Russia isn’t a reliable partner – The idea of a “Reverse Nixon” (splitting Russia from China) is unrealistic. Putin is too dependent on Xi Jinping to pivot westward.
Theory #3: Trump’s Personal Agenda
A more cynical theory is that Trump’s moves are politically motivated:
- Personal ties to Putin – Trump has long expressed admiration for Putin and opposed sanctions on Russia.
- Anti-Europe stance – Weakening Ukraine hurts the EU, aligning with Trump’s broader skepticism toward NATO.
- Domestic politics – Trump may see ending U.S. involvement in Ukraine as a campaign promise that plays well with his base.
A Dangerous Turning Point
It’s hard to overstate how dramatic and troubling this shift is.
Since 2022, the U.S. has been Ukraine’s biggest lifeline. Now, in just one week, Washington has gone from being Ukraine’s strongest ally to treating Kyiv as a nuisance.
While it’s too soon to predict the full consequences, this shift could reshape the global order—and not for the better.
- If Ukraine collapses, will Europe step up?
- If the U.S. cozies up to Russia, does China benefit?
- If America betrays an ally, who will trust it next?
Right now, all we can do is watch and hope. But history has shown that abandoning allies rarely leads to peace—and often leads to even bigger wars.
What do you think? Is the U.S. making a smart move—or a historic mistake? Comment below! ⬇️
