Introduction
Donald Trump’s pledge to bring peace to Ukraine within his first 100 days in office has reached its halfway mark, but the war remains as intense as ever. While negotiations have taken place, primarily between the U.S. and Ukraine, Russia has refused to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. Instead, Vladimir Putin has set additional conditions—ones that Kyiv cannot accept.
Meanwhile, Trump’s actions have triggered global economic turbulence, wiping out trillions from the stock market. At the same time, Ukraine has ended its eight-month-long incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, raising further questions about the future of the war.
This article breaks down the current situation, the stalled peace talks, and what to expect next.
Failed Peace Talks: Russia Rejects the 30-Day Ceasefire
Trump’s Disciplinary Measures Against Ukraine
After a tense Oval Office meeting, Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of being “not ready for peace.” In response, the U.S. administration took drastic steps:
✅ Suspended all intelligence-sharing with Kyiv
✅ Cut off military equipment aid to Ukraine
For Ukraine, losing U.S. intelligence was a critical blow. Facing immense pressure, Zelensky’s administration had little choice but to comply with Trump’s demands for peace talks.
Ukraine’s Countermove: The 30-Day Ceasefire Proposal
One week after the U.S. cut off military support, Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. There, Ukraine proposed an unconditional 30-day ceasefire—not to freeze the frontlines, but to pave the way for a just peace.
Ukraine’s terms included:
📌 Exchange of prisoners and civilians
📌 Return of kidnapped Ukrainian children
📌 European involvement in the peace process
The U.S. accepted the proposal and resumed intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, shifting the pressure onto Russia to agree.
Putin’s Rejection: More Conditions, No Peace
Although Putin initially accepted the proposal “in principle,” he quickly added demands that Ukraine could never accept:
🔴 Recognition of Russia’s territorial gains
🔴 Political subordination of Ukraine
🔴 Long-term guarantees of Russian control
In short, Russia’s conditions made any real ceasefire impossible.
Limited Success: A Ceasefire on Energy Attacks Only
After further negotiations, Russia agreed to suspend attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid—but not the rest of the country. In return, Ukraine paused its attacks on Russian oil refineries.
However, within hours of the agreement, Russia continued its drone and missile attacks, hitting a Ukrainian hospital in Sumy and a railway power station near Dnipro. Ukraine, in turn, attacked a fuel depot in southern Russia.
The so-called ceasefire was effectively meaningless.
The Global Cost of Trump’s Foreign Policy
Economic Fallout: $5 Trillion Wiped from the U.S. Market
Trump’s erratic foreign policy has triggered global market instability, leading to:
📉 A 10% drop in the S&P 500—wiping out seven months of market gains
📉 Tesla stock crashing 50%—returning to 2020 valuation levels
📉 Investor bets on a U.S. recession doubling to over 40%
Defense Industry Impact: Countries Backing Away from U.S. Weapons
Trump’s unpredictability has also damaged America’s defense industry.
❌ Portugal canceled its order for F-35 fighter jets, citing uncertainty over Trump’s administration.
❌ Canada is reconsidering its F-35 deal, potentially looking at European alternatives.
❌ France is pushing for European nations to abandon American weapons contracts in favor of domestic alternatives.
Meanwhile, China is capitalizing on this U.S. instability, further expanding its influence in global arms markets.
Ukraine’s Kursk Operation Ends: Strategic Win or Costly Gamble?
For eight months, Ukraine had occupied parts of Russia’s Kursk region in an offensive designed to pressure Moscow. However, by March, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the region.
Did the Kursk Offensive Work?
✅ It humiliated Russia, showing that Ukraine could strike deep into Russian territory.
✅ It diverted Russian troops from other frontlines.
❌ But it failed to create a crisis that significantly weakened Moscow’s war effort.
Ukrainian forces lost over 600 pieces of military equipment, while Russia sustained similar losses. Ultimately, the offensive may have cost Ukraine more than it gained.
Ukraine’s Drone War: Striking Russia Harder Than Ever
Despite stalled peace talks, Ukraine’s drone campaign continues at an unprecedented scale.
📌 March 11: Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Russia, with 337 drones intercepted.
📌 March 12-14: Repeated strikes on Moscow and Russian oil refineries.
📌 The Russian refinery in Tuapse was hit, possibly using a long-range Neptune missile.
This suggests that Ukraine is not backing down, despite U.S. pressure for negotiations.
What Comes Next?
Trump’s upcoming March 18 call with Putin will be critical.
- Will Trump pressure Ukraine into further concessions?
- Will Russia agree to a real ceasefire?
- Or will both sides simply use this “pause” to prepare for more war?
At this stage, Russia’s goal remains the same: full political control over Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine is determined to resist.
The only wildcard? Donald Trump himself.
FAQs
1. Why did Russia reject the ceasefire?
Because Putin wanted to attach impossible conditions, such as Ukraine’s total surrender.
2. What happens if Trump stops supporting Ukraine?
Ukraine would likely lose critical intelligence-sharing and military aid, making its defense much harder.
3. How did the Kursk operation impact the war?
It embarrassed Russia but ultimately didn’t force Moscow to shift enough troops to change the war’s momentum.
4. Could Trump actually negotiate peace?
Possibly, but not on fair terms for Ukraine—Russia’s demands remain completely unacceptable to Kyiv.
5. How does this impact global security?
Trump’s chaotic diplomacy is weakening U.S. credibility, making allies nervous and strengthening China and Russia.
