Introduction: The Double Shock to a Nation Already on Edge
In 2024, Venezuela was struck by not one, but two political earthquakes—each from opposite ends of the hemisphere, yet deeply intertwined in their consequences. First came Nicolás Maduro’s controversial re-election in July, a domestic affair marred by accusations of fraud and suppression. Then, just months later, Donald Trump returned to the White House, delivering a foreign policy blow that would reverberate across Venezuela’s already fragile economy. The combination of these events plunged the South American nation deeper into crisis, igniting unrest and leaving the country’s economic future hanging by a thread.
This blog post dives deep into what happened, why it matters, and what it means for Venezuela and the world.
Maduro’s Disputed Victory: A Familiar Yet Fading Playbook
Despite years of economic collapse, international isolation, and growing public dissent, Nicolás Maduro managed to cling to power for a third consecutive term. The July 2024 election was, in many ways, déjà vu: heavily criticized, lacking transparency, and plagued by state interference. Opposition candidate Edmundo González, who many had pinned hopes on, failed to overcome the deep-rooted structural advantages Maduro wielded.
But while Maduro may have secured another term on paper, the political cost was steep. Protests erupted immediately after the results were announced, sweeping through major Venezuelan cities and lasting for two months. The demonstrations, which left dozens dead, signaled that while Maduro might win elections, he had increasingly lost the support of his people.
Enter Trump: A Swift Blow to the Lifeline Venezuela Desperately Needed
If Maduro thought the worst was behind him, February 2025 proved otherwise. In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump announced a stunning policy reversal:
“We are hereby reversing the concessions that crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela on the oil transaction agreement dated November 26th, 2022.”
This seemingly routine act of political retribution carried profound consequences. Biden’s 2022 deal had given Chevron limited permission to operate in Venezuela and allowed Caracas to resume oil exports to the United States—a crucial economic lifeline.
Trump’s decision? Sever it. Immediately.
The Oil That’s Keeping a Nation Alive
To understand the severity of Trump’s move, it’s essential to grasp Venezuela’s dependence on oil. The country holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves—about 303 billion barrels. However, Venezuelan crude is notoriously heavy and laden with impurities like sulfur, making it far more difficult (and expensive) to refine than alternatives from Saudi Arabia or the U.S.
Even so, oil exports accounted for 95% of Venezuela’s export value and 60% of its national budget in 2024. Without buyers—especially one as large as the United States—the Venezuelan economy stands on the brink.
The Biden Boost—and the Trump Bombshell
Biden’s license to Chevron in 2022, known as General License 41, allowed Venezuela to slowly return to oil production. Exports rose more than 10% by early 2024, according to Reuters, and the country became the fourth-largest supplier of oil to the U.S., behind only Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia.
But Trump’s return to power changed everything.
By canceling the license, Trump not only halted oil imports but also sent a message: the U.S. would no longer serve as a financial crutch to Maduro’s regime. While geopolitically strategic for Washington, the decision threatens to accelerate Venezuela’s economic freefall.
Venezuela’s Allies Fall Away
2024 was a difficult year diplomatically for Maduro, even before Trump’s announcement. Key allies either weakened or fell:
-
Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in a surprise rebel victory.
-
Russia, Venezuela’s top weapons supplier and diplomatic shield, faltered in Ukraine.
-
Iran, long a partner in resisting Western sanctions, faced setbacks as its proxies in Syria and Lebanon were decimated.
Anonymous also launched cyberattacks on Venezuela, claiming to hack over 300 government websites, including the presidency itself.
The Guyana Gamble: Maduro’s Failed Power Play
Maduro’s attempt to distract from domestic crises with a foreign one also failed. Early in 2024, he threatened to annex the Essequibo region of Guyana, claiming it rightfully belonged to Venezuela. Troops were positioned along the border, and nationalist rhetoric surged.
But international condemnation—especially from the U.S.—was swift and severe. With ExxonMobil discovering high-quality oil in the contested region, Washington made it clear: Venezuela had no claim.
Trump’s second term only ensures the U.S. will remain firmly on Guyana’s side.
Venezuela’s Oil: Abundant but Undesirable
Here lies the tragic irony: Venezuela has immense oil reserves, but few want to buy it. Its low API gravity (16–30) and high sulfur content make it among the world’s dirtiest crudes. Trump wasn’t exaggerating when he called it “tar.”
Production costs are high, environmental impacts are severe, and in an era of green transition, it’s a hard sell—even to allies. Even Chevron, once eager, now plans to lay off up to 20% of its workforce amid rising uncertainty.
The Green Transition: A Time Bomb for Venezuela
Looking beyond 2030, the future appears even darker. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a dramatic drop in oil and gas demand by 2050—by up to 75%—as green energy dominates.
Other oil-rich states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have begun diversifying into tourism, tech, and finance.
Venezuela? Not so much.
Without a post-oil strategy or robust partners, the country risks being left with the world’s largest stockpile of stranded assets.
Chevron’s Dilemma: A Symptom of a Larger Crisis
Chevron’s sudden troubles underscore how even American companies could suffer from the Venezuela fallout. With low production costs and access to cheap labor, Venezuela once seemed like a promising partner.
But now, the volatile political environment and policy reversals may cause energy firms to think twice. Trump’s protectionist stance could also pit corporate interest against U.S. foreign policy.
The Last Hope: China, or Nothing
Today, China stands as Venezuela’s last major buyer, but even this relationship is far from stable. China has often exploited its advantage, buying oil at discounted rates and leveraging debt traps.
If that door closes, Maduro—and Venezuela—may find themselves completely isolated.
Conclusion: Venezuela’s Ticking Clock
Maduro’s rigged re-election may have preserved his grip on power, but it has done little to halt the country’s descent. Trump’s policy reversal has stripped Venezuela of one of its last financial lifelines. The world’s dirtiest oil now faces an expiration date, and without new partners or a diversified economy, Venezuela may soon become the global poster child of a failed petrostate.
The Bolivarian Republic is racing against time—and losing.
FAQ Section
Q1: Why did Donald Trump revoke Venezuela’s oil license?
A: Trump viewed Biden’s 2022 oil concessions as benefiting a hostile regime. His move aligns with his longstanding criticism of Nicolás Maduro and protectionist energy policies.
Q2: Why is Venezuelan oil considered low quality?
A: It has low API gravity (meaning it’s heavy) and a high sulfur content, making it difficult and expensive to refine.
Q3: What is the Essequibo region dispute?
A: Venezuela claims the oil-rich Essequibo territory in western Guyana, though international law supports Guyana’s sovereignty.
Q4: How dependent is Venezuela on oil?
A: Oil accounts for over 95% of its exports and 60% of its national budget.
Q5: Could Venezuela survive without U.S. oil buyers?
A: Only temporarily. Without diversified partners or industries, Venezuela’s economy could collapse.
