Introduction: A New Great Game in Africa
A brief glance at Africa’s geopolitical map reveals a startling reality. Despite being deeply mired in a costly and protracted war in Ukraine, and facing extensive sanctions from the West, Russia has managed to skillfully expand its influence across Africa. This development hasn’t just taken many by surprise—it has redefined the balance of power on the continent.
The Kremlin’s involvement in Africa is no longer limited to economic partnerships or Cold War nostalgia. Today, it is a complex web of military operations, political support, propaganda campaigns, and resource extraction. The Russian footprint now spans across Central Africa, the Sahel, North Africa, and even the strategic Red Sea coast.
So, how is Moscow pulling this off? And more importantly—what does it hope to gain? Let’s unpack the Kremlin’s growing presence in Africa and the broader consequences of this shadow war for global politics.
Russia’s African Strategy: Survival for Resources
At the core of Russia’s approach is a transactional model: regime survival in exchange for resources. For African leaders facing civil wars, internal dissent, or international sanctions, Russia offers a lifeline—military protection, political backing, and media support. In return, the Kremlin gains access to valuable commodities: gold, oil, diamonds, and timber.
This model was first perfected in Syria, where Russia’s intervention helped Bashar al-Assad cling to power. In return, Russia secured oil concessions and military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim. Though Syria isn’t part of Africa, it became a prototype for future deals with fragile regimes across the continent.
Case Studies of Influence
1. Central African Republic (CAR):
Russia’s most entrenched presence is in the CAR. Since 2018, Russian mercenaries—primarily from the Wagner Group—have helped President Faustin-Archange Touadéra consolidate control. In return, Russia has secured gold and timber concessions and effectively turned Bangui into a strategic hub.
2. Sudan:
Russian presence in Sudan is strategic, granting access to Red Sea ports and gold mines. Though Russia initially supported President Omar al-Bashir and later the RSF rebels, both alignments eventually faltered. Nevertheless, the Kremlin continues to pursue military and economic influence in the country.
3. Mali:
Following a coup in 2021, Mali turned away from the West and invited Russian support. Wagner operatives, now partially replaced by the African Corps under the Russian Ministry of Defense, provide military training and direct combat support—particularly in the fight against jihadist groups in the Azawad region.
4. Burkina Faso and Niger:
Both nations recently expelled French and American troops, paving the way for Russian forces to fill the vacuum. In Niger, Russia took over a former U.S. base in 2024—a stunning reversal that symbolizes Moscow’s ambitions.
5. Libya and Equatorial Guinea:
In Libya, Russian forces support General Khalifa Haftar, helping secure oil fields. In Equatorial Guinea, Russia is now entangled in managing a presidential succession, signaling that influence goes beyond the battlefield.
Wagner Group: The Tip of the Spear
Russia’s early African incursions were spearheaded by the Wagner Group, a private military company known for its brutality and deniability. Wagner allowed Russia to operate under the radar—bypassing international law and insulating the Kremlin from direct responsibility for casualties and war crimes.
But the game changed in 2023, after Wagner’s failed rebellion and the death of its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin. The group’s remnants have been absorbed into a new, state-controlled unit: the African Corps, which now represents Russia’s official military face on the continent.
Beyond Guns: The Soft Power Strategy
While military presence is a key component, Russia’s strategy also includes aggressive influence operations. Central to this is the creation of “Russian Houses”—cultural centers promoting Russian language and values, but also serving as hubs for propaganda and disinformation.
Run by veterans of the infamous Internet Research Agency, these centers support anti-Western narratives, recruit local influencers, and amplify Kremlin-aligned messages across traditional and digital media. According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Russia is behind 40% of disinformation campaigns on the continent.
Why Africa? The Kremlin’s Calculations
1. Natural Resources:
Africa’s untapped reserves of gold, diamonds, rare earth metals, and oil are a lucrative incentive. While the revenue doesn’t offset the cost of war in Ukraine (estimated at hundreds of millions per day), it still helps.
2. Arms Market & Trade:
Africa is a growing market for Russian arms, especially with Western sanctions limiting other avenues. In 2023, trade between Russia and Africa reached a record $24.5 billion.
3. UN Votes and Political Leverage:
With 54 out of 193 votes in the UN General Assembly, Africa offers political capital that Russia can leverage globally.
4. Military Projection:
Bases in Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic allow Russia to influence the Red Sea, Mediterranean, and even Indian Ocean trade routes.
5. Demographic Leverage:
Russia’s declining population contrasts with Africa’s demographic boom. Some African nationals have reportedly joined the Russian military, including in the war in Ukraine.
The Cracks Appear: Recent Setbacks
While the map of Russian presence in Africa looks impressive, the underlying picture is less rosy.
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Underwhelming Troop Deployments: The African Corps was expected to field 40,000 troops. In reality, deployments are meager—around 100 soldiers in Niger, 300 in Burkina Faso, and 200 in Equatorial Guinea.
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Military Failures: A major defeat in Mali saw Wagner and Malian troops ambushed and decimated by rebel forces in Azawad, undermining the myth of invincibility.
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Assad’s Collapse in Syria: Perhaps the most symbolic blow came in late 2024, when Bashar al-Assad’s regime finally collapsed. Despite years of Russian support, Moscow abandoned its ally, casting doubt on its reliability. The fall disrupted logistics for African operations, as Syria had served as a vital transit hub.
The Geopolitical Ripple Effect
The West is regrouping. The U.S. and France are repositioning their forces in pro-Western African nations like Nigeria and Ivory Coast. Meanwhile, Ukraine has also joined the fight, with special forces reportedly sabotaging Wagner operations and training rebels.
As the battle for Africa heats up, new players like Turkey and China are emerging as alternatives for African leaders. Some are already distancing themselves from Russia, wary of its fading promises and the shifting sands of geopolitical allegiance.
Conclusion: Russia’s African Gamble
Russia’s strategy in Africa has been bold, aggressive, and often effective. By leveraging military muscle, disinformation, and opportunistic diplomacy, the Kremlin has managed to fill voids left by retreating Western powers. But sustaining this model in the face of growing resistance, limited resources, and logistical challenges is proving more difficult.
The survival-for-resources arrangement is fragile, dependent on Russia’s own geopolitical stability and capacity to project power. As recent events in Mali and Syria show, even mighty influence networks can unravel swiftly.
In this high-stakes game, Africa is not merely a battleground for resources but a geopolitical chessboard. And as the pieces continue to shift, the outcome will shape not only the continent’s future but also the broader East-West confrontation.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: Why is Russia interested in Africa now, amid its war with Ukraine?
Russia sees Africa as a strategic opportunity to offset Western sanctions, access critical resources, and gain political allies, especially in international forums like the UN.
Q2: What is the African Corps?
The African Corps is a new military unit formed under Russia’s Ministry of Defense to replace Wagner Group operations after the group’s destabilization in 2023.
Q3: Are African countries benefiting from Russian involvement?
Some regimes gain short-term military or political stability, but these often come at the cost of sovereignty, with Russia extracting significant economic concessions.
Q4: How does Russia spread propaganda in Africa?
Through “Russian Houses,” social media trolls, and partnerships with local media, Russia runs influence campaigns to promote anti-Western narratives and pro-Kremlin sentiment.
Q5: Could Russia’s position in Africa collapse?
Yes. Logistical issues, military failures, and the fall of long-time allies like Assad in Syria show that Russian influence is not invulnerable and may face setbacks.
