For years, Mexico has been ravaged by a brutal conflict involving rival cartel factions fighting for dominance over the narcotics trade. Since the “War on Drugs” escalated in 2006, this internal war has claimed around 400,000 lives and disappeared countless others. Yet, the damage isn’t confined to Mexico: fentanyl and methamphetamine, largely smuggled across the southern U.S. border, have fueled America’s devastating opioid crisis, claiming more than 250,000 American lives from fentanyl overdoses alone since 2018.
Despite the staggering death toll, the notion of direct U.S. military action inside Mexico was once seen as unrealistic. However, with Donald Trump back in office in 2025, that “fringe” idea is quickly moving into the mainstream.
Building Toward Confrontation
The shift began subtly. After taking office in late 2024, Mexico’s new president Claudia Sheinbaum secretly authorized CIA surveillance drone flights over Mexican territory to map out cartel activities. Meanwhile, Trump ordered stepped-up U.S. military surveillance flights along the border and the Pacific coast of Mexico. These missions are gathering intelligence, building a “target deck” for possible future strikes.
Further laying the groundwork, in February 2025, the Trump administration designated six major Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs):
- The Sinaloa Cartel
- The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)
- The Gulf Cartel
- La Familia Michoacána
- The Northeast Cartel
- United Cartels
Designating cartels as FTOs unlocks powerful financial sanctions, enabling the U.S. government to freeze assets and criminalize material support. However, it also signals a profound escalation: a legal framework for future military action.
Divided Inside the Administration
Within Trump’s team, there is a division:
- Sebastian Gorka’s camp advocates immediate, aggressive military strikes against the cartels without Mexico’s consent.
- Stephen Miller’s camp urges caution, worried that unilateral action could damage U.S.-Mexico cooperation on border security and migration.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Border Czar Tom Homan have hinted publicly that “all options are on the table” — including cross-border raids and drone strikes.
Mexico’s Stance: No Consent, No Cooperation?
President Sheinbaum maintains that unilateral U.S. military action would be a violation of Mexican sovereignty. She has stepped up cooperation through the extradition of cartel members and increased border troop deployments but insists that actual U.S. strikes within Mexico would be “unacceptable.”
Despite this, insiders report that high-level Trump officials are seriously considering launching drone strikes even without Mexican permission.
Historical Parallels: Dangerous Precedents
The U.S. has operated without host nation consent before:
- 2011: Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
- 2020: Trump ordered a drone strike killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Iraq.
Given the FTO designation and Trump’s past actions, a similar pattern could emerge with Mexican cartels.
Challenges and Risks
While American military power vastly exceeds that of any cartel, major challenges loom:
- Legal Hurdles:
- Under international law, unilateral strikes would likely be illegal.
- Civilian Casualties:
- Fentanyl labs are often in dense urban areas. Drone strikes could result in mass civilian deaths.
- Retaliation Risks:
- Cartels might target U.S. citizens living in or visiting Mexico (over 1.6 million Americans reside there).
- Diplomatic Fallout:
- Relations with Mexico could collapse, undermining crucial migration and border agreements.
- New Threats:
- Attacks could escalate into a broader conflict, turning Mexico into America’s “next Afghanistan.”
Cartel Capabilities: Not to Be Underestimated
Modern cartels, especially Sinaloa and CJNG, possess frightening military capabilities:
- Armored narco-tanks
- Heavy machine guns and Gatling guns
- IEDs and drones for bombing raids
- Surface-to-air missiles (like Stingers)
- Anti-tank weapons (like Javelins)
In short: cartels today are not ragtag gangs. They are paramilitary forces.
Root Causes Remain
Even if the U.S. military successfully destroys labs and kills leaders, unless America addresses the demand for narcotics and the Iron River of guns flowing south from U.S. states like Texas into Mexico, the cycle will continue. New cartels will rise, new leaders will emerge, and the violence will persist.
The war on drugs cannot be won by bullets alone.
FAQ
Q1: Why did Trump designate the cartels as terrorist organizations?
A: The FTO designation allows the U.S. to freeze cartel assets and criminalize financial transactions. It also lays a legal groundwork for potential military actions.
Q2: Can the U.S. legally attack the cartels in Mexico?
A: Not without Mexico’s consent under international law. Unilateral action would likely violate the UN Charter.
Q3: Could military strikes against the cartels backfire?
A: Yes. Civilian casualties, diplomatic fallout, and potential cartel reprisals against Americans are all serious risks.
Q4: How powerful are the cartels now?
A: Extremely powerful. Combined, they command between 160,000 to 185,000 armed fighters, control about one-third of Mexico, and wield heavy military-grade weaponry.
Q5: What is the “Iron River?”
A: It’s the term for the vast flow of firearms smuggled from the U.S. into Mexico, fueling cartel violence.
