In the early hours of May 7, 2025, the silence over the Kashmir valley shattered.
Jet engines roared. Missiles streaked across the sky. Nine targets deep within Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir erupted in flame and dust. India had launched Operation Synindor—a high-precision, multi-branch military strike that lasted just 23 minutes but shook South Asia and the world.
For decades, India and Pakistan have danced on the edge of nuclear catastrophe. Now, they’re staring straight into the abyss again.
But this time, it’s not just airstrikes or border clashes. This time, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty—a pact so sacred to Pakistan’s survival that its government is calling this an “act of war.”
So what exactly happened? Why now? And just how close are we to a full-blown regional war?
Let’s unravel the facts.
The Attack That Set It All Off
It started with terror.
On April 22, 2025, five gunmen disguised as Indian soldiers attacked a group of Hindu and Christian tourists in the Baan Valley near Pahalgam, a popular destination in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The assailants—armed with M4s and AK-47s—forced victims to recite Islamic verses. If they couldn’t, they were executed. Twenty-seven people were killed, including 25 Hindu tourists, one Christian, and a local Muslim guide.
The Resistance Front, a shadowy terror group linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility—only to retract it days later. But by then, the damage was done. Delhi blamed Pakistan, stating unequivocally that the attackers had cross-border support.
And then, retaliation began.
Operation Synindor: The Vermilion Strike
At 1:44 a.m. on May 7, Indian fighter jets—MiG-29s, Su-30MKIs, and Rafales—swept across the Line of Control, armed with SCALP cruise missiles and AASM HAMMER precision bombs.
Their targets? Alleged terror bases linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen:
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Bahawalpur (Maras Subhan Allah HQ)
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Kotli and Koti Abbas
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Muzaffarabad (Camp Savala)
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Muritka (Maras Taiba)
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Sialkot (Camp Sariel & Mehmon Joya)
According to India, the 24 strikes killed 70 terrorists and injured 60 more. Pakistan, however, reported 26 civilian deaths, including women and children, and claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft.
The aircraft allegedly downed included one MiG-29, one Su-30MKI, and three French-built Rafales—significant losses considering India only fields 36 Rafales total.
Pakistan reportedly used its HQ-9 SAM systems, acquired from China, alongside J-10 fighters to intercept the intruding jets. These systems are derived from Russian S-300 platforms and represent a substantial leap in Pakistan’s air defense capability.
India has neither confirmed nor denied the aircraft losses.
A First Since 1971
This wasn’t just another air raid. Operation Synindor—named after the red powder worn by married Hindu women—was the first joint Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force strike since the 1971 Indo-Pakistan War.
India’s Ministry of Defense emphasized the operation’s non-escalatory nature: “We avoided Pakistani military installations. Our response was focused and restrained.”
But Islamabad saw it differently. “An unprovoked act of aggression” and a “violation of sovereignty,” declared Pakistan’s Prime Minister, vowing a “resolute response at the time and place of our choosing.”
As the world held its breath, both countries began shelling each other along the Line of Control. Civilians fled. Flights over Pakistan were grounded. Diplomats scrambled.
But the biggest shock was yet to come.
The Water War Begins: India Suspends the Indus Waters Treaty
On April 23, a day after the Pahalgam massacre, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty—a critical water-sharing agreement signed in 1960, mediated by the World Bank.
For Pakistan, this treaty is existential.
Why? Geography. Take one look at a map and it becomes clear: though the Indus River system flows mostly through Pakistan, India controls its headwaters. The rivers begin in India’s Himalayan territories—meaning India can dam, divert, or delay the flow.
And under this treaty, Pakistan gets access to 80% of the Indus Basin’s waters, while India controls only 20%.
India has long considered this imbalance unfair. But up until now, both sides respected the deal—even during war. That is, until now.
With the treaty now on ice, 237 million Pakistanis—including those in Lahore, Karachi, and Multan—face potential disaster. Agriculture, drinking water, and hydropower all hang in the balance.
Pakistan has called the move an “act of war,” promising legal retaliation in the International Court of Justice, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and through World Bank mediation.
A History Written in Fire: India-Pakistan’s Bloody Record
This isn’t the first time these two nuclear states have come to blows.
Let’s review just a few key conflicts:
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1947 – First Kashmir War
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1965 – Second Kashmir War
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1971 – Indo-Pakistani War (birth of Bangladesh)
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1999 – Kargil Conflict
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2016 – Uri terror attack, followed by Indian “surgical strikes”
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2019 – Pulwama bombing, Indian airstrikes on Balakot
In each case, the pattern repeats: a terror attack, claims of Pakistani involvement, and Indian retaliation. Often, both countries strike a delicate balance—military action without full-blown war.
This time feels eerily similar. Yet, the stakes are even higher, thanks to the Indus Waters Treaty and the increased lethality of both nations’ arsenals.
Will the Pattern Hold?
According to South Asia expert Kristof Ivanek, we may be witnessing the continuation of India’s post-2016 doctrine: retaliate decisively to prevent future terror attacks.
He writes: “India doesn’t seek territory. It seeks deterrence. Its operations are tactical, not strategic. But the political messaging is enormous.”
Ivanek believes that India’s strikes—like in Pulwama—are meant to compel Pakistan to rein in militant groups. The challenge is navigating that tightrope without triggering uncontrolled escalation.
And right now, both sides are still on it. Barely.
The World Reacts: From Disappointment to Disbelief
The international response was swift, if not especially effective.
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U.S. President Donald Trump called it “a disgrace” and “a centuries-old fight.”
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged restraint and dialogue.
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UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for “maximum military restraint.”
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China, which borders both India and Pakistan, condemned “all acts of terrorism” but avoided siding with either nation.
Airlines canceled routes over Pakistani airspace. Stock markets wobbled. The region braced for what comes next.
Why the Indus River Is the Real Flashpoint
Forget the missiles for a moment.
The Indus River might be the real red line in this conflict.
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80% of Pakistan’s farmland depends on the Indus system
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25% of the country’s GDP is water-dependent
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37% of the population is directly employed in agriculture
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The river feeds 237 million people—over 10x the population of Australia
If India starts diverting or damming its tributaries—Jhelum, Chenab, Indus—it could devastate Pakistan’s economy and food security. This would cross into existential threat territory.
It’s like cutting the Nile from Egypt. Or draining the Mekong from Vietnam.
Pakistan’s military doctrine even includes the possibility of nuclear response to water-based aggression.
That’s how serious this is.
What Happens Now?
We are watching a dangerous moment in real time.
There are four possible scenarios:
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De-escalation – Pakistan launches symbolic airstrikes or artillery retaliation, both sides back down.
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Limited War – Small-scale exchanges along the Line of Control increase, drawing in political and humanitarian crises.
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Water War – India begins building or accelerating infrastructure to limit flow to Pakistan. Legal and political standoffs escalate.
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Full Conflict – Unlikely, but not impossible. Especially if one side miscalculates.
Each of these options carries risk—and none are good.
But what’s clear is this: water may become the most explosive weapon in South Asia.
FAQ – India, Pakistan, and the Indus Conflict
Q: Why did India launch an airstrike?
In retaliation for a terror attack in Kashmir that killed 27 civilians, allegedly supported by Pakistan-based militants.
Q: What is Operation Synindor?
A joint Indian military strike involving 24 precision attacks on alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
Q: How many casualties were reported?
India claims 70 militants killed. Pakistan reports 26 civilian deaths and 46 injured. Both sides dispute air losses.
Q: What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
A 1960 water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank, dividing six rivers between India and Pakistan. India suspended it after the attacks.
Q: Why is the treaty so important to Pakistan?
Because over 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture, GDP, and water needs rely on these rivers. Interference upstream could devastate the country.
Q: Is nuclear war a possibility?
It’s unlikely—but miscalculation or unchecked escalation could change that. Water security is now on par with military threats.
Q: Has anything like this happened before?
Yes—India conducted similar strikes in 2016 (Uri) and 2019 (Pulwama). But the suspension of the Indus Treaty makes this crisis unprecedented.
Q: What role is the world playing?
Minimal so far. The UN, U.S., and China have called for calm but offered little in the way of resolution or pressure.
Q: What’s next?
That depends on whether either side decides to escalate or de-escalate. Watch for Pakistan’s response and any Indian moves on water infrastructure.
