In late October 2024, something quietly historic happened in the heart of Russia — not in Moscow or St. Petersburg, but in Kazan, a city few in the West could point to on a map. With its minarets, spires, and a skyline that blends Tatar heritage with post-Soviet muscle, Kazan became the unlikely stage for a summit that might, in time, be remembered as the moment the global order began to shift.
There were no parades. No red carpet rolled out for Vladimir Putin. No last-minute diplomatic pleas for peace in Ukraine. Instead, representatives from 36 countries — China, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Malaysia, and more — assembled in what looked, at first glance, like a meeting of bureaucrats. But behind the carefully chosen words and well-rehearsed photo ops lay a growing movement with far more ambition than most were willing to admit.
This wasn’t the G7. It wasn’t NATO. This was BRICS.
And the question quietly humming under every conversation, hallway whisper, and translation earpiece was this:
What happens if BRICS becomes a military alliance?
The BRICS Blueprint: From Curiosity to Counterweight
The term BRICS once sounded like a Wall Street gimmick — coined in 2001 by economist Jim O’Neill to describe four rising economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. By 2009, the group had gone from economic prediction to diplomatic project. And a year later, with the inclusion of South Africa, it became BRICS — a five-nation bloc with a shared dissatisfaction toward the post-Cold War global order.
Their grievances? Western-controlled financial institutions, vulnerability to global economic shocks, and a seat at the geopolitical table that never really materialized. BRICS sought to change that.
They created their own bank — the New Development Bank — a counterweight to the IMF and World Bank. By 2022, it had financed over $32 billion in infrastructure across the globe. They worked on secure communication cables and a payment system independent of SWIFT. And they kept growing. On January 1st, 2024, four new members joined: Egypt, the UAE, Iran, and Ethiopia. Saudi Arabia flirted with membership. Argentina walked away. Dozens more lined up.
On paper, BRICS now holds:
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45% of the world’s population
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30% of Earth’s land surface
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A financial muscle strong enough to rival the IMF
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A serious appetite to rewrite the global script
So what happens if they take the next logical — or perhaps illogical — step, and turn economic cooperation into military coordination?
Let’s dive in.
Military Metrics: BRICS vs the World
Before we consider strategy, ideology, or feasibility, let’s begin with the brute facts. Raw power. Who’s got what?
Russia
Still fighting in Ukraine, and still standing. Russia brings:
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1.15 million active troops (rising to 1.5 million)
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3,500 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles
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Vast artillery, multiple fleets
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100+ strategic bombers, including the stealth-capable Su-57
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A nuclear arsenal of 5,500+ warheads
China
The juggernaut of the East. China brings:
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2 million active troops — the world’s largest
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Nearly 5,000 main battle tanks
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A navy with 3 aircraft carriers, 50 destroyers, 60+ submarines
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200+ J-20 stealth fighters
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An expanding strategic bomber force
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500+ nuclear warheads, and growing
India
Massive, complex, and rising fast:
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1.5 million active troops, plus 1.2 million reserves
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Two aircraft carriers, two nuclear submarines
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5,000 tanks, 350+ modern fighter jets
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172 nuclear warheads, and an eye on regional dominance
Brazil & South Africa
Latin America’s largest army and Africa’s most industrialized force:
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Brazil: 334,000 troops, modest naval and air assets
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South Africa: Just under 100,000 personnel, limited modern hardware
New Members: Egypt, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia
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Egypt: 300,000 troops, 1,300 M1 tanks, 200+ F-16s
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UAE: Modern French tanks, F-16s, Rafales inbound
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Iran: 600,000 troops, outdated equipment, strategic unpredictability
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Ethiopia: Soviet-era gear, no navy, ambitions outpacing capacity
Together, the BRICS military inventory is vast. But the deeper story? It’s scattered. Uncoordinated. And not ready for real-time, multi-national conflict.
Geography: The Achilles Heel of BRICS Power
If you sat down to draw the most impractical map for a mutual defense alliance, you might end up with something like BRICS.
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Brazil and South Africa are 8,000 km apart
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Ethiopia’s closest BRICS neighbor is 5,000 km away
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China and India share a contested border across the Himalayas
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Russia is thousands of kilometers from most of its allies
Compare that to NATO, whose forces cluster in Europe and North America, with railways, highways, and ports ready for use. BRICS? Not so much.
Most members would need airlift or sealift to help one another. And in that department, things get dicey.
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China: ~70 strategic airlifters
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Russia: Enough to move 3–5,000 troops in 48 hours
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India: Just 28 large airlifters
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UAE, Egypt: Some capacity, limited by geography
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Brazil, South Africa: No long-range power projection
Without strategic bases, interoperable infrastructure, or logistical pathways, it’s hard to imagine BRICS rushing to one another’s defense in a hurry. And if the target of their defense were a landlocked state like Ethiopia, the task becomes exponentially harder.
The Real Potential: Nuclear Umbrella, Industrial Might, and Soft Power
But this isn’t a simple numbers game. The BRICS alliance would still have teeth — sharp ones.
1. The Nuclear Umbrella
Russia, China, and India could offer nuclear protection to non-nuclear BRICS states. That threat — even implied — would be enough to make any aggressor think twice.
2. Manufacturing Power
China and India are industrial titans. Russia is churning out munitions at Cold War levels. Together, BRICS could sustain prolonged military operations with massive output.
3. A Diplomatic Hammer
BRICS might never deploy troops en masse, but it could freeze out the West financially, build rival institutions, or isolate adversaries with diplomatic coordination.
4. The Saudi Wildcard
Still undecided, Saudi Arabia could tip the scales. It has wealth, oil, and increasingly, military ambition. If Riyadh joins, BRICS changes overnight.
Internal Divides: Why a BRICS Military Pact Might Never Happen
So what’s stopping them?
Everything.
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India and China barely speak, let alone cooperate militarily.
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Russia’s leader is under ICC indictment — and can’t safely attend a summit in South Africa.
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Egypt and the UAE are US partners, not enemies.
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Iran is locked in a shadow war with Israel — a conflict most BRICS nations want nothing to do with.
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Turkey, a NATO member, is also flirting with BRICS membership.
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Ethiopia and Egypt are locked in disputes over Nile River access.
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China wants to lead. India, Brazil, and others don’t want to follow.
There are also basic questions of ideology. Some BRICS nations are democracies. Others are theocracies, autocracies, or in flux. Some see the West as an enemy. Others see it as a partner with flaws. No one agrees on the next move.
Why It Still Might Happen — And What It Would Mean
So would BRICS really go military?
Not likely. Not tomorrow. Not unless something dramatic happens.
But what might happen is a “soft military pact.” Something vague, deniable, but real. A nuclear umbrella here. A logistical agreement there. Shared training missions. Intelligence collaboration. A few “joint exercises.”
And if the world keeps drifting toward a bipolar reality — the West vs. the Rest — that might be all BRICS needs.
The power of symbolism is enormous. And BRICS, even without boots on the ground, might succeed in shifting the balance of perception — and that might be enough to reshape the world.
FAQ
Q: What is BRICS?
A: BRICS is an intergovernmental organization originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later joined by South Africa. It aims to provide a counterweight to Western-dominated institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and NATO.
Q: Who are the current members of BRICS?
A: As of 2024: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE.
Q: Could BRICS become a military alliance like NATO?
A: Not easily. The nations are geographically spread out, politically divided, and lack the military interoperability needed for collective defense.
Q: Does BRICS have nuclear weapons?
A: Yes. Russia, China, and India all have nuclear arsenals, and could offer protection to other BRICS states.
Q: Is BRICS anti-Western?
A: Not all members are anti-West, but the group increasingly positions itself as a counterbalance to Western hegemony.
Q: Could Saudi Arabia join?
A: Possibly. It has been invited and would bring wealth and influence, but remains undecided as of now.
