In the summer of 2015, Angela Merkel uttered three words that would echo across Europe: “Wir schaffen das.” “We can do this.”
At the time, it sounded optimistic, perhaps noble. Germany was opening its doors to a tidal wave of refugees fleeing the blood-drenched conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Nearly 1 million people poured in over the next year alone, and by the time the dust had settled, Germany had made itself the beating heart of Europe’s greatest modern migration.
Today, ten years on, the question still hangs in the air: Did Germany actually do it?
Welcome to the story of how one of the world’s most stable and prosperous democracies was reshaped—socially, politically, economically—by a decision made in the heat of a humanitarian crisis. This is not just a story of migration. It’s a tale of unintended consequences, of rippling effects in school classrooms, job markets, train stations, and voting booths. It’s about demographics, crime statistics, political upheaval, and the slow-motion recalibration of a nation’s identity.
Let’s start at the beginning—before the storm.
The Wave
Between 2015 and 2016, 2.3 million asylum seekers reached Europe. For many, the journey was hellish. Some arrived through the perilous Aegean Sea route, crossing from Turkey to Greece on flimsy boats. Others trudged overland, following the Balkan Route northwards. Most were from war-torn Syria, but many others hailed from Afghanistan, Iraq, Eritrea, and Kosovo.
In 2015 alone, Eurostat recorded 360,000 Syrian asylum applications in the EU. Germany received 320,000 of them—nearly 90%.
Why? Two reasons.
One, the breakdown of the Dublin Regulation, which had previously required asylum seekers to be processed in the first EU country they entered. That rule collapsed under the sheer volume of arrivals. And two, Merkel’s decision to keep Germany’s borders open to refugees who had already crossed into other EU countries.
As a result, Germany became ground zero for one of Europe’s largest-ever peacetime population shifts.
A Country Transformed by Numbers
To understand how profound the changes were, consider this: in 2015, Germany received 441,800 asylum applications. The next year, that number spiked to 722,270. Poland, by contrast, received only 12,000.
Of course, not every asylum seeker was allowed to stay. Many—such as thousands of arrivals from Albania and Serbia—were deemed economic migrants and sent home. But for Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis, protection was overwhelmingly granted. By 2022, Germany had granted asylum to nearly 1 million refugees from these three nations.
Then came another wave—this time from the east. As the war in Ukraine escalated, another 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees flooded into Germany. Meanwhile, more Syrians trickled in: another 250,000 between 2022 and 2024.
As of 2025, Germany is home to roughly 3.5 million refugees, making it the country with the most asylum seekers in all of Europe.
A Patchwork of Origins, Destinations, and Realities
The demographics of this refugee population are diverse. For Syrians and Afghans, the majority are young males. Only 41% of Syrian refugees are women; for Afghans, it’s just 35%. That contrasts sharply with Ukrainian refugees, most of whom are women and children.
Their destinations within Germany paint a clear picture of opportunity-driven settlement. Syrians tend to concentrate in Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and North Rhine-Westphalia—urbanized areas with economic potential. Afghans cluster around Frankfurt and Bavaria. Iraqis are most prominent in Lower Saxony.
Ethnically, the refugee population is no monolith. Among Syrians, for instance, 60% are Arab, but a full third are Kurdish. Around 90% are Muslim, but even this broad category contains many different cultural and sectarian divides.
Interestingly, many arrived with educational qualifications. In the initial wave of Syrians, half had completed high school or university. But by later waves, that number had dropped significantly. And already, some 160,000 Syrians have become naturalized German citizens.
The Economy: Boon or Burden?
The economic impact is, predictably, a Rorschach test.
Supporters point out that the employment rate for refugees who arrived in 2015 and 2016 is now 64%—lower than the German average, but still significant. Germany has done better integrating Syrian workers than almost any other EU country. As of 2025, roughly 226,600 Syrians are employed in jobs covered by social insurance.
But here’s the catch: the unemployment rate among Syrians is still ten times higher than the national average. And the disparity between genders is stark. While 73% of Syrian men from the first wave are working, only 29% of women are.
Then there’s the welfare state. In 2023 alone, refugee support cost the federal government €29.7 billion. For context, the total military budget that year was about €67 billion. More than 60% of those who rely on government benefits are either foreign-born or second-generation migrants.
Yet it’s not all negative. Refugees are now an essential part of Germany’s workforce in sectors like healthcare and logistics. Around 10,000 Syrians, for example, work in Germany’s healthcare system—an area with severe labor shortages.
Still, bureaucratic red tape makes refugee employment harder than it should be. Refugees often wait months before being allowed to work. Recognition of foreign qualifications is slow. The result? Countries like Poland and the UK see Ukrainian refugee employment rates of 61% and 65% respectively. In Germany? Just 18%.
Social Pressure: The Strain on the System
Germany’s infrastructure wasn’t built to absorb such a massive population in such a short time.
In smaller towns unaccustomed to migration, the effects were more visible: longer waits for doctors, rising rents, classrooms packed with children who spoke little German. Public transport systems strained. Social services overstretched.
These everyday frictions are what ordinary Germans feel—much more than abstract GDP charts or employment forecasts.
And public opinion has shifted accordingly. A 2024 Deutschland Trend survey found that 68% of Germans want fewer refugees. Only 3% want more. Another survey showed 77% calling for immigration policy changes. Some 56% believe the government is overwhelmed by migration.
Crime, Perception, and Reality
Here’s where things get trickier.
Statistics show that non-citizens—who make up 15% of Germany’s population—were responsible for 41% of all crimes in 2023. In 2014, that number was 28.7%. For sexual assault, asylum seekers made up 13% of suspects in 2021, despite being just 4% of the population.
However, Germany remains objectively safe. The country recorded only 0.74 homicides per 100,000 people in 2022—lower than most of Europe. But perception tells a different story. In 2017, only 23% of Germans said they felt unsafe in public spaces. By 2024, that number had risen to 40%. A third now fear using public transport after dark.
The most horrifying incidents—like the 2024 stabbing of a toddler by a previously-arrested Afghan asylum seeker—receive intense media coverage and inflame public sentiment. Yet only 20% of EU refugee return orders are ever carried out, and 80% of deportation orders in Germany result in “tolerated” status—meaning they’re not enforced.
Politics: A Shock to the System
Perhaps the most obvious—and dramatic—impact of the refugee wave has been political.
In 2013, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) failed to even enter parliament. By 2017, after Merkel’s refugee decision, it won 12.6% of the vote and entered the Bundestag for the first time. In 2025, it claimed over 20%, becoming the country’s second-largest party.
The rise of the AfD has shattered political taboos in Germany, a country long haunted by its fascist past. Once seen as fringe, the AfD is now a central player, especially in eastern Germany, where economic stagnation and depopulation have created fertile ground for resentment.
Even mainstream politicians have been drawn into the far-right’s gravitational pull. In January 2025, opposition leader Friedrich Merz supported an immigration bill with AfD backing—triggering mass nationwide protests. Simultaneously, the hard-left Die Linke gained momentum among younger voters, partly in reaction to the perceived normalization of extremism.
What was once one of the West’s most stable political systems has begun to polarize—and the refugee crisis played no small part.
Ten Years On: A Divided Legacy
It would be misleading to say that Merkel’s decision alone reshaped Germany. A lot has happened since 2015: COVID, the war in Ukraine, energy crises, economic turbulence. But the refugee wave accelerated existing trends—and introduced some new ones.
It deepened social divides, empowered populists, and challenged the limits of multiculturalism. Yet it also brought in thousands of new citizens, many of whom are working, learning, contributing.
So did Germany “do it”?
The answer is complicated. There were wins—economic contributions, humanitarian success stories—and costs—financial, social, political.
Whether history judges Merkel’s decision as a brave stand or a costly miscalculation will depend on what happens in the next ten years. One thing’s for certain: the Germany of 2025 is not the Germany of 2015.
And that is one of the most consequential legacies of our time.
FAQ: Germany’s Refugee Crisis — 10 Years Later
Q: How many refugees has Germany accepted since 2015?
A: Around 3.5 million refugees now reside in Germany, including over 1 million Syrians and 1.2 million Ukrainians.
Q: What are the main countries of origin?
A: Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and more recently, Ukraine.
Q: Where do most refugees live in Germany?
A: Primarily in urbanized states: Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and North Rhine-Westphalia.
Q: Has the refugee population integrated into the workforce?
A: Partially. As of 2025, about 64% of those who arrived in 2015–16 are employed, with notable gender and regional disparities.
Q: How much does refugee support cost Germany?
A: In 2023, the government spent €29.7 billion on support and welfare for refugees.
Q: Has crime increased due to migration?
A: Some statistics show higher crime rates among non-citizens, but Germany remains one of the safest countries in Europe.
Q: How has the political landscape changed?
A: The AfD has surged to become Germany’s second most popular party, a shift largely attributed to migration concerns.
