In a world overflowing with crises, few are as invisible—and as dire—as the one unfolding right now in Somalia. The East African nation, long known for its status as a failed state, is being pushed closer to the abyss than at any point since its catastrophic civil war in the 1990s. As of mid-2025, the jihadist group al-Shabaab is not just resurgent. It is winning.
Over the past several months, al-Shabaab has launched a series of coordinated offensives across southern and central Somalia. Their endgame is increasingly clear: surround, destabilize, and ultimately seize Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital. And unless something dramatic changes, they may succeed. Welcome to the Siege of Mogadishu—a turning point not just for Somalia, but for the global fight against terror.
A Nation Long in Collapse
To understand how Somalia reached this perilous state, we have to acknowledge the brutal truth: Somalia has been broken for decades. Its federal government controls only slivers of its own territory. Much of the rest is governed by autonomous regions like Somaliland and Puntland, independent clans, and terrorist groups like the Islamic State and, most potently, al-Shabaab.
Somalia’s institutions are some of the world’s weakest. There haven’t been nationwide legislative elections since the 1960s. Law enforcement barely functions. The judiciary is toothless. Corruption is not just rampant—it’s normalized. According to Transparency International’s 2024 index, Somalia ranked second-worst globally. Freedom House scores the country a paltry 8 out of 100.
Two-thirds of its population lives in multidimensional poverty, lacking reliable access to food, shelter, or healthcare. And with no institutional resilience to fall back on, every crisis feels existential.
The Rise and Evolution of al-Shabaab
Al-Shabaab, formed in 2006, emerged initially as a resistance force against Ethiopian occupation. Over time, it morphed into a jihadist insurgency affiliated with al-Qaeda. At its peak in the early 2010s, it controlled large swaths of southern and central Somalia.
Aided by the African Union and U.S. airstrikes, the Somali government launched a major counteroffensive in late 2022. Using a two-pronged strategy—elite shock troops to clear territory, followed by poorly equipped regulars to hold it—Mogadishu regained lost ground. But the approach was always brittle, depending on continuous momentum and foreign air power.
The 2025 Offensive: Al-Shabaab Strikes Back
That brittle strategy collapsed in February 2025. Al-Shabaab launched a lightning offensive, targeting rural outposts and exploiting the cracks between zones controlled by Somali forces. With a series of hit-and-run attacks, car bombs, and sieges, they broke through.
Within weeks, the jihadists weren’t just capturing villages. They were overrunning military bases, forcing elite forces into retreat, and seizing strategic highways. Shockingly, in some cases, small groups of fighters defeated numerically superior government troops. Psychological warfare, desertion, and collapsing morale turned tactical setbacks into full-blown routs.
The Fall of Adan Yabal: A Turning Point
The climax came on April 16, when al-Shabaab captured the strategic town of Adan Yabal along with 10 surrounding outposts. Government forces—reportedly more than 2,500 strong—collapsed in the face of a 100-man jihadist assault. That same day, al-Shabaab seized Abur, a vital supply node, further severing Mogadishu’s already weak connections.
Now, Mogadishu is encircled.
Terror by Design: Al-Shabaab’s Siege Strategy
Rather than launch an all-out assault, al-Shabaab is choosing a slower, more insidious path. They are applying pressure through constant terror—mortar attacks, suicide bombings, and sabotage—while cutting off supplies and sowing chaos.
This is a siege not just of guns and bodies, but of nerves. And it plays to al-Shabaab’s strengths. Terrorism is their métier. They aim to fracture the city from within before ever storming its gates.
Already, Mogadishu is cracking. Suicide bombings have begun targeting army recruitment drives and military installations. Mortar shells rain down in key neighborhoods. The president’s convoy has come under attack. Al-Shabaab is hunting not just foot soldiers—but the state’s very symbols of legitimacy.
A Government on the Brink
The Somali military, already fractured by corruption and underfunding, is imploding. Shock troops can’t hold territory they retake. Regular troops are deserting en masse. Reports have emerged of entire police units vanishing—possibly defecting. Even death threats against deserters’ families have failed to stem the tide.
The siege has triggered mass psychological collapse among Mogadishu’s defenders. With their comrades fleeing and government morale at historic lows, many soldiers are choosing flight over fight.
International Inaction and Incoherence
Global powers have noticed—but their response has been feeble. The African Union’s stabilization mission is underfunded and mired in bureaucratic limbo. Turkey plans to triple its troop presence, but that will take time. The U.S. is back to launching airstrikes, but these are pinpricks against a spreading wildfire.
Meanwhile, countries that might help—like Kenya, Ethiopia, and the Emirates—have seen their own forces attacked by al-Shabaab. No one wants to walk into what could be another Kabul.
What Comes Next: Three Scenarios
- Al-Shabaab Storms Mogadishu
A direct assault would be costly and uncertain. Somali elite troops and foreign air support could still inflict heavy losses. Urban warfare is messy and unforgiving. But if the city collapses from within first, a final push might prove easier than expected. - The Siege Grinds On
This is the most likely scenario. Al-Shabaab slowly bleeds the city, escalating terror attacks until Mogadishu becomes ungovernable. With enough time, pressure, and attrition, the city could implode from within—leaving the door open for takeover. - A Last-Minute International Surge
It would take immense political will, manpower, and risk. A coalition of nations could break the siege, stabilize the capital, and counter-attack. But right now, no one appears willing to lead such an effort. The clock is ticking.
A Looming Caliphate?
Al-Shabaab’s vision for Somalia is chilling: a jihadist caliphate extending into East Africa. With Mogadishu under siege and the federal government cornered, that vision is closer than ever. Already, al-Shabaab controls most of southern and central Somalia. The longer the siege continues, the more legitimacy and momentum they gain.
The world’s silence could soon become complicity.
Final Thoughts: The Breaking Point
What we are witnessing in Somalia is the slow death of a state. The capital is encircled. The army is retreating. And the forces of global jihad are advancing with surgical precision.
The next few months could define the fate of East Africa. If Mogadishu falls, al-Shabaab becomes the de facto ruler of Somalia. If it survives, it may yet become the rallying point for a new, determined international effort to rebuild the country.
But time is not on Somalia’s side.
And al-Shabaab knows it.
FAQ: The Siege of Mogadishu
What is al-Shabaab and why are they attacking Mogadishu?
Al-Shabaab is a jihadist militant group affiliated with al-Qaeda. Their goal is to overthrow Somalia’s government and establish a caliphate. They’re targeting Mogadishu as the symbolic and strategic heart of Somalia.
Why is Mogadishu vulnerable?
The Somali government lacks capacity and control. Its military is plagued by desertion, corruption, and low morale, while al-Shabaab has grown stronger through captured arms and territory.
Is Mogadishu expected to fall?
Not imminently, but the city is under siege. Al-Shabaab appears to favor a prolonged campaign of terror and attrition over a direct assault—for now.
What is the international community doing?
Very little, currently. Turkey and the U.S. have pledged support, and some airstrikes continue. However, there is no coordinated or large-scale international relief plan.
Could this destabilize East Africa?
Absolutely. If Mogadishu falls, it would signal a regional jihadist resurgence, threatening Ethiopia, Kenya, and beyond.
