When people talk about failed states, Nigeria isn’t usually the first name that comes to mind.
Somalia? Sure.
Sudan? Absolutely.
Haiti? Without question.
But Nigeria? The most populous country in Africa? The sixth most populous nation on Earth? A cultural powerhouse, home to 236 million people and a leading economy on the continent?
Surely not.
And yet… Nigeria is falling apart.
It’s not obvious at first glance. Lagos pulses with life. Abuja shines with government glass and steel. Economic stats suggest recovery. Poverty rates are dropping, infrastructure is improving, and infant mortality is falling.
But beneath the headlines lies a truth so grim it rarely makes front pages:
Nigeria is fighting a multi-front internal war, against multiple enemies, in nearly every region—and it’s losing.
The Myth of Progress
Yes, Nigeria has its bright spots. And yes, its economic indicators are technically improving. But numbers only tell part of the story.
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56% of Nigerians still live below the national poverty line.
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Food insecurity is rampant.
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Inflation is high.
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Unemployment among the under-25 population (which is two-thirds of the country) is staggering.
The reality? Life is improving for some and deteriorating rapidly for others. Especially those living far from the wealthy urban centers.
And it’s in Nigeria’s vast, vulnerable peripheries—its rural north, southeast, northwest, and central belt—that the government’s weakness is most exposed.
These are the frontlines of a silent civil collapse.
A Country at War With Itself
To understand Nigeria’s decline, you need to look beyond the headlines and into its geography.
Because all across its vast territory, Nigeria is waging—and losing—wars against a staggering number of insurgent groups.
We’ll move clockwise across the country to explore them.
Northeast: Boko Haram and ISWAP
The world first noticed Nigeria’s security crisis in 2014, when Boko Haram kidnapped 276 schoolgirls from Chibok. But by then, the crisis was already old.
Boko Haram has been fighting since 2009. Its goal: topple the Nigerian government and replace it with a brutal theocracy governed by ultra-strict Sharia law.
Over the years, Boko Haram has displaced over 2 million people, killed hundreds of thousands (directly or through starvation, disease, and war), and committed systemic atrocities including mass abductions, executions, and village burnings.
But Boko Haram is just the beginning.
In 2016, a splinter group broke away: the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Originally more civilian-friendly, ISWAP has since shifted tactics—and now mirrors the brutality of its predecessor.
These two groups frequently clash with each other while simultaneously battling the Nigerian military and expanding their reach into neighboring Chad, Cameroon, and Niger.
In recent months:
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Boko Haram massacred 57 people in two villages.
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ISWAP seized 45 military vehicles in one raid.
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Both groups have overrun military bases, kidnapped judges, and destroyed infrastructure.
They are not retreating. They are expanding.
Southeast: Biafran Separatists Return
In Nigeria’s southeast, the long-dormant dream of Biafra is back.
Led by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and their militant wing, the Eastern Security Network, this insurgency seeks to revive the short-lived Republic of Biafra, which fought for independence during Nigeria’s devastating civil war in the late 1960s.
Skirmishes with government forces are now routine. So are massacres, road ambushes, and political assassinations. The separatists are fighting everyone—federal troops, bandits, and rival groups—while controlling pockets of territory.
Northwest: Bandit Country
In the northwest, ideology has little to do with the chaos.
Here, it’s about power and profit.
Bandit groups operate with military-grade weapons, raid towns, kill civilians, loot mines, and kidnap locals for ransom. The violence is so pervasive that 80% of residents in affected areas say banditry is the biggest threat they face—not even food insecurity competes.
More than half a million people have been displaced. Mass killings are common. The Nigerian military rarely intervenes—and when it does, it often arrives too late.
Middle Belt: The Farmer-Herder War
In the center of the country, a slower but equally brutal war is being fought.
Here, climate change and population growth have pushed herders and farmers into conflict over dwindling resources. Desertification and droughts have made arable land scarce. Armed with automatic rifles, each group now fights for control over pastures and fields.
While often framed in religious terms—Muslim herders vs. Christian farmers—the core issue is land and survival. Still, the violence has reached genocidal levels, with hundreds of civilians massacred in recent months alone.
A Crippled State Response
With so many simultaneous conflicts, one might expect Nigeria’s military to be out in force.
But in reality, the state is crumbling.
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230,000 troops must cover a country of 924,000 square kilometers.
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Soldiers are underpaid, underequipped, and frequently outgunned.
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Corruption is endemic—money meant for salaries or equipment often vanishes.
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Morale is collapsing.
And even when Nigerian forces act, they’re often no better than the militants.
Reports from Reuters, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch have documented:
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Mass forced abortions
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Indiscriminate airstrikes
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Widespread torture and sexual violence
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Execution of civilians and children
In many rural areas, the military is feared just as much as the insurgents.
A Broken Chain of Command
Nigeria’s security failure isn’t just about boots on the ground. It’s a rot from the top.
From generals down to local police, accountability is nonexistent. Corruption is incentivized. Bribes are expected. Commanders outsource operations to militias, who are often aligned with local warlords or clans.
Transparency International ranks Nigeria 140th out of 180 countries on corruption control.
Even Nigeria’s rare military victories often feel hollow. Take a recent operation that allegedly killed a notorious bandit leader and 100 of his fighters. The problem? That same leader had already been declared dead in 2022. And violence in the region didn’t stop.
This isn’t counterinsurgency. This is theatre.
The Geopolitical Void
Nigeria is not just fighting alone. It’s bleeding alone.
Western nations are reluctant to send support, fearing that any aid will be stolen or misused. Regional allies—like Chad or Niger—are unstable themselves and offer little help.
Russia and China have stepped in symbolically. But a few military advisors or factories won’t reverse decades of mismanagement, abuse, and insurgent growth.
Nigeria isn’t just poorly governed.
It’s ungoverned—at least in wide swathes of the countryside.
What Happens Next
Calling Nigeria a “failing state” is no longer controversial. It’s perhaps generous.
It has:
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Multiple simultaneous insurgencies
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A paralyzed, abusive military
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A corrupt government with no plan
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A growing, frustrated youth population
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Few international lifelines
This is a nation in multi-dimensional crisis.
And like all failing states, it risks crossing an invisible threshold: from weak state to non-state. From governance to collapse.
Because a nation cannot fail forever.
At some point, it either recovers—or breaks.
Let’s hope Nigeria chooses the former.
FAQ: Nigeria’s Crisis, Explained
Why is Nigeria experiencing so many insurgencies?
A combination of poverty, youth unemployment, poor governance, ethnic tensions, religious extremism, and environmental decline have created ideal conditions for armed groups to thrive.
What is Boko Haram’s goal?
To replace Nigeria’s government with a hardline Islamic theocracy governed by strict interpretations of Sharia law.
How many people have died in Nigeria’s conflicts?
Exact numbers are difficult to confirm, but estimates place the combined death toll in the hundreds of thousands, including both direct killings and indirect deaths from displacement and famine.
Is the Nigerian military helping or hurting?
Both. While it does fight insurgents, it has also been accused of widespread human rights abuses, including massacres, rapes, and airstrikes on civilians.
Why isn’t the world helping?
Western nations are wary of funding a deeply corrupt system. Neighboring countries are either unstable or ineffective allies. Russia and China provide symbolic aid, but nothing transformative.
What can change Nigeria’s trajectory?
Meaningful anti-corruption reform, better civilian protection, sustainable investment in military professionalism, and regional coordination. But all of these are far from guaranteed.
