Jakarta isn’t just a city. It’s a mega-metropolis.
Home to more than 34 million people, it’s the second-largest urban area on Earth, trailing only Tokyo. And yet, the city is literally sinking into the sea.
In response to this existential crisis, Indonesia’s government made a dramatic decision: build an entirely new capital city from scratch — deep in the rainforest of Borneo.
That new city is called Nusantara. And while it’s not underwater, it might already be in trouble.
Because instead of becoming Indonesia’s next great chapter, Nusantara is shaping up to be a very expensive cautionary tale.
Why Is Jakarta Failing?
Let’s start at the root of the problem: geography.
Indonesia is the largest archipelagic nation on Earth, made up of over 17,000 islands straddling the equator — from Sumatra to Papua. It’s one of the most culturally and ecologically diverse places in the world.
But it’s also one of the most fragmented.
This fractured geography makes national governance a logistical nightmare:
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Transportation is difficult.
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Infrastructure is patchy.
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Natural disasters are frequent.
And nowhere is this more obvious than in Jakarta — the capital, the beating economic heart of Indonesia… and the place now sinking at an alarming rate.
The Sinking Megacity
Jakarta was never supposed to be a megacity.
It began as a modest port town called Sunda Kalapa — part of a local Hindu kingdom. Then the Dutch colonized it, renamed it Batavia, and transformed it into the center of their Southeast Asian empire.
After independence in 1945, it became Jakarta and exploded in size.
Jakarta today is a symbol of Indonesia’s ambition — and also its dysfunction.
Here’s the problem:
Jakarta sits on a low, flat, marshy coastal plain, just meters above sea level. Some areas are already below it.
Complicating that further:
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Monsoons regularly flood the city.
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Groundwater pumping has caused the city to subside at 10–20 cm per year.
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By 2050, a third of Jakarta could be underwater.
A Population Bomb
Jakarta’s growth wasn’t just fast. It was unprecedented.
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In 1945: about 1 million people.
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Today: 34 million in the metro area.
This isn’t Tokyo or London, which grew over centuries. This was exponential urbanization, with no real plan.
To cope, residents drilled their own illegal wells.
That drained Jakarta’s aquifers.
Which caused the ground to sink.
Which let the floods in.
Which overwhelmed the city’s outdated canals.
Oh, and traffic?
Jakarta is consistently ranked among the worst cities in the world for congestion.
Enter: Nusantara
Faced with this literal collapse, Indonesian President Joko Widodo (aka Jokowi) announced a radical solution in 2019:
Move the capital.
The idea?
Build a new capital called Nusantara in East Kalimantan, on the island of Borneo.
Not just move a few agencies.
Not just create a backup.
But shift the entire seat of government — president, parliament, ministries — out of Jakarta.
Why Borneo?
Borneo is:
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Centrally located within Indonesia
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Less seismically active
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Less prone to flooding
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Sparsely populated
And East Kalimantan specifically is far from the volcanic and tectonic chaos of Java. Plus, it offers a more symbolic balance — moving power away from the overcrowded Javanese core.
It was also pitched as a model city:
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Smart
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Sustainable
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Digitally connected
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Full of green space and public transport
A utopia.
On paper.
$30 Billion and Counting
Nusantara was estimated to cost $30 billion — and that number could rise dramatically with delays and inflation.
The government promised private investors would cover most of it.
But here’s the thing:
Investors aren’t showing up.
Why?
Because it looks a lot like a politically motivated gamble with unclear returns.
So far:
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Timelines have slipped
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Deadlines have been missed
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Much of the infrastructure remains symbolic or incomplete
There have been ceremonies, ribbon cuttings, and bold pronouncements — but not much city to show for it.
The Environmental Cost
Then there’s the elephant in the rainforest.
Nusantara is being built in one of the most ecologically sensitive regions in the world.
To build the new capital:
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Thousands of hectares of rainforest are being cleared
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Endangered species like orangutans are being displaced
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Indigenous communities are being ignored or marginalized
Despite promises of a green city, the project has already caused massive deforestation and ecological damage.
And ironically, to build a “sustainable” city, the government has brought in over 100,000 migrant workers, instead of relying on local labor.
Will Anyone Actually Move?
This is the big question.
You can build all the roads and buildings you want…
But if civil servants, families, and businesses don’t actually relocate, what’s the point?
Right now:
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Jakarta still holds all economic and cultural power
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Most government operations remain in Jakarta
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Nusantara’s population remains below 500,000
A few ceremonies have been hosted there. A few government offices opened. But for now, Jakarta remains the de facto capital.
So Nusantara is not quite the capital.
But it kind of is.
It’s a weird limbo — a symbolic capital without real weight.
This Has Been Tried Before
Indonesia is not the first country to move its capital:
🇧🇷 Brazil → Brasília (1960s)
🇳🇬 Nigeria → Abuja
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan → Astana (now Nur-Sultan, then Astana again)
🇲🇲 Myanmar → Naypyidaw
Some succeeded. Some didn’t.
Brasília eventually worked — but took decades.
Abuja became functional — but struggles with inequality.
Astana dazzles — but feels hollow.
Naypyidaw? Vast empty highways and a ghost-town feel.
The lesson:
Building a capital is easy. Getting people to live there is not.
Nusantara’s Uncertain Future
Nusantara was supposed to be Jokowi’s legacy project.
But with his term now over, and enthusiasm waning, the city’s future is murky.
It might become:
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A functioning capital over time
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A white elephant project — half-built and forgotten
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A monument to political overreach
It all depends on whether:
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People move
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Institutions follow
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Investment arrives
And those things don’t happen automatically just because you build roads and towers.
So What Now?
Indonesia faces a dilemma.
It has:
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A sinking megacity (Jakarta)
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A half-built capital (Nusantara)
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And no clear path forward
The split is now both physical and symbolic:
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Jakarta holds the power.
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Nusantara holds the ambition.
Can both co-exist?
Maybe. But it won’t be easy.
FAQ – Indonesia’s Capital Relocation
Why is Jakarta sinking?
Due to groundwater over-extraction, poor drainage, and rising sea levels. Some neighborhoods are subsiding 10–20 cm per year.
How big is Nusantara?
Planned for up to 1.5 million people long-term. Current population: under 500,000.
How much will it cost?
Estimated at $30+ billion, with uncertain private investment and rising construction costs.
Why build it in Borneo?
Geographic centrality, seismic stability, symbolic decentralization. Also pitched as a climate-resilient “smart city.”
What are the risks?
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Environmental destruction
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Displacement of indigenous communities
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Investor hesitation
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Low public adoption
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Becoming a white elephant project
Is this unprecedented?
No. Other countries have relocated capitals — with mixed results. Brazil, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, and Myanmar all offer lessons.
Final Thoughts: A Capital at a Crossroads
Jakarta is sinking.
Nusantara is stalling.
And Indonesia’s future sits in the balance.
This isn’t just about buildings or geography.
It’s about identity, governance, and what kind of future Indonesia wants to build — and for whom.
If Nusantara succeeds, it could be a model for climate-resilient, future-focused cities.
If it fails, it might become one of the most expensive missteps in modern urban history.
Time — and water levels — will tell.
