It sounds absurd on the face of it. One is a supranational bloc made up of 27 often-squabbling member states with a combined population of 448 million people. The other is a sprawling northern country home to just under 40 million, famous for its snow, politeness, and world-leading maple syrup production. And yet, somehow, talk of Canada joining the European Union has gone from online joke to mainstream debate.
In a world where up is down and yesterday’s unthinkable becomes today’s headline, the question “What if Canada joined the EU?” isn’t just idle curiosity anymore. It’s geopolitical contingency planning. It’s economic survival in a time of fractured alliances and unpredictable neighbors. And it might—just might—be an idea whose time has almost come.
The Spark
The genesis of this idea wasn’t a romantic yearning for the cultural gravitas of the Old Continent. No, it came from the opposite: sheer political desperation.
In the wake of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs on Canada—later partially frozen—and his even more incendiary musings about “annexing” the Great White North, Canadians began entertaining possibilities they wouldn’t have dreamed of five years ago. In a widely shared poll, 44% of Canadians said they’d support joining the EU, while only 34% were opposed.
Suddenly, what once would’ve been laughed out of the room became a subject of serious conversation. Prime Minister Mark Carney flew to Paris and declared Canada “the most European country not in Europe.” Former Belgian PM and EU figurehead Guy Verhofstadt publicly supported the idea. Even the Economist published a piece earnestly exploring the potential of “CanEU.”
But setting aside headlines and hypothetical polls, what would it actually mean if Canada tried to become Europe’s 28th member? What hurdles would it face—legally, geographically, politically—and what would it gain or lose from throwing in its lot with Brussels?
Let’s find out.
Why It Makes (Some) Sense
Despite their obvious differences, Canada and the EU already have a long and growing relationship. Under the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), signed in 2017, trade in goods has risen by 65%, and services by nearly 73%. And that’s with CETA still being only provisionally implemented—several EU countries, including France, haven’t yet ratified it.
Clearly, there’s demand on both sides of the Atlantic. Canada brings raw materials and energy security—something Europe has long craved, especially after the war in Ukraine highlighted its dependency on Russian gas. Meanwhile, Europe has something Canada sorely lacks: industrial equipment, advanced manufacturing, and a massive, relatively wealthy population.
Even more telling: while interprovincial trade in Canada is often a bureaucratic nightmare, the EU—despite its many critics—has managed to establish a single market that’s often easier to navigate.
And then there’s the big geopolitical picture. Trump’s America isn’t just a source of friction—it’s a potential existential threat to Canadian autonomy. The rationale goes: If Canada can’t count on the U.S. as a dependable partner anymore, it needs a backup plan. And fast.
But… Can It Even Happen?
Here’s the catch: Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union states that “any European state” can apply for membership. Geography doesn’t lie, and Canada is very much not in Europe.
In 1987, when Morocco tried to apply, the EU said bluntly: you’re in Africa—no dice. So, case closed?
Not quite.
You see, exceptions already exist. Parts of the Caribbean, South America, and Indian Ocean are legally part of the EU—not because of their location, but because they’re territories of France or other EU nations. Greenland, which is technically in North America, was once part of the EU via Denmark.
And let’s not forget Cyprus. Entirely located in Asia, it’s a full-fledged EU member. Turkey—which is only 3% in Europe—was still allowed to begin accession talks, even if those talks are now frozen.
So, would Brussels really turn down a G7 country, one that shares cultural, historical, and legal roots with Europe, just because it’s a few thousand kilometers west? Unlikely.
In fact, Prospect Magazine argues that if Canada truly wanted to join, and if the EU wanted it in, “a way would be found.” Treaties can be amended. Definitions can be fudged.
But even if geography can be creatively interpreted, Canada still faces massive political and legal roadblocks.
The Brutal Reality
To get in, all 27 existing EU countries must agree. Not one. Not a majority. Every. Single. One.
And the signs aren’t exactly encouraging. A decade after CETA was signed, 10 EU countries still haven’t ratified it, including France, Italy, and Poland. If a simple trade deal takes that long, full-blown membership is a logistical Mount Everest.
Then there’s domestic EU politics. Countries like Hungary and Slovakia have already proven willing to veto major EU decisions for political leverage. All it takes is one populist leader deciding Canada’s membership isn’t in their interest—and the deal’s dead.
On Canada’s end, the bureaucratic undertaking would be immense. Policy Options estimates ten years of legal harmonization would be required, updating vast swaths of Canadian law to match EU regulations on everything from consumer rights to food safety to digital privacy.
And what if—after a decade of effort—France held a referendum and said “non”? It’s not just disappointment; it’s diplomatic humiliation.
Sovereignty, Immigration, and Alberta’s Fury
Even if Canada got past the legal hurdles, there’s the existential question: would Canadians actually be willing to give up their sovereignty?
EU membership would make the European Court of Justice the final legal authority in relevant matters. It would require adhering to all EU directives, even unpopular ones. And it would mean freedom of movement for all 448 million EU citizens—granting them the right to work, live, and study in Canada.
While that might sound good to a retiree dreaming of Portugal, it’s less appealing if you’re a policymaker trying to manage social services.
And then there’s Alberta—Canada’s oil-rich, conservative powerhouse. Already bristling under liberal rule, Alberta could explode at the idea of joining a union led by European environmentalists who might throttle its energy ambitions. The province’s nascent AI and tech sectors could also be hamstrung by strict EU regulations that have already stifled innovation on the continent.
Europe’s Problem With New Members
From the European side, Canada isn’t exactly arriving to a welcome mat.
EU enlargement fatigue is real. Just 38% of Europeans want more countries added. Meanwhile, ten other nations are already in line, including Ukraine, Albania, and North Macedonia—some of whom have been waiting decades.
And every new member makes the EU more unwieldy. Hungary repeatedly blocks consensus on Ukraine. Poland had a major spat with Brussels over judicial reforms. Would adding a country as large and distant as Canada really help the situation?
Probably not.
A More Realistic Future
So no, Canada probably isn’t going to become the 28th EU member state. But that doesn’t mean a closer relationship is off the table.
In fact, there are three more realistic alternatives.
1. Deepen CETA
First, get all EU countries to ratify and fully implement the existing trade deal. Then, expand it. Create a “Canada Plus” agreement—similar to what the UK once envisioned—adding cooperation in defense, science, and maybe even limited labor mobility.
2. Join the EEA
The European Economic Area (EEA) model includes Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. It grants full access to the single market but doesn’t require political integration. Canada could push for a transatlantic version—geography be damned.
3. Copy Switzerland
Switzerland isn’t in the EU or EEA, but has dozens of bilateral treaties with Brussels. A similar model for Canada would be labor-intensive but would allow full access to Europe while preserving legal sovereignty.
Or Build Something New?
One wild-card option: a new bloc of like-minded democracies, as envisioned by former EU ambassador Michael Emerson. This would include Canada, the EU, the UK, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and others—essentially a formalized version of “the West,” minus the U.S.
Such a coalition would wield enormous economic and diplomatic power. It’s unlikely to materialize any time soon, but the very idea highlights an important truth: Canada wants options.
The Bottom Line
Canada’s desire to hitch itself to Europe isn’t about joining for joining’s sake. It’s about distance from the United States.
After years of political instability south of the border, Ottawa is acutely aware of its vulnerability. Whether it’s trade wars, annexation rhetoric, or chaotic leadership, the risks of being tied too closely to Washington are growing.
Europe, for all its dysfunction, offers stability. Predictability. A rules-based order.
Joining the EU might be impossible. But moving closer? That’s not just desirable—it might be necessary.
FAQ: Canada and the EU
Q: Can Canada actually join the EU?
A: Technically no, due to Article 49 of the EU treaty requiring applicants to be “European states.” But with enough political will, that definition could be creatively reinterpreted.
Q: What benefits would Canada gain from EU membership?
A: Greater trade diversification, access to a vast single market, more influence on international regulations, and reduced dependency on the U.S.
Q: What would Canada lose?
A: Some sovereignty, control over immigration, and legal independence in EU-regulated areas. Provinces like Alberta could also see major friction due to EU environmental and tech rules.
Q: What’s the most likely outcome?
A: Deepened trade ties via an expanded CETA, or a possible EEA/Swiss-style partnership. Full EU membership remains highly unlikely.
Q: Could Canada help form a new international bloc?
A: Possibly. Some experts propose a new organization of rich democracies minus the U.S., to foster cooperation on trade, defense, and climate.
