Introduction
Three years ago, Ebrahim Raisi ascended to the presidency of Iran under a cloud of controversy. The election that brought him to power was widely regarded as rigged, suggesting a premeditated move by Iran’s power brokers towards a more distinguished position. This assumption seemed plausible as the aging and ailing Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was well beyond the life expectancy of Iranians, and many believed Raisi was being groomed to succeed him. However, history has a way of twisting even the most well-laid plans. Instead of elevating him to the supreme office, Raisi’s presidency ended in tragedy and controversy, reshaping the political landscape of Iran.
The Tragic End of a Presidency
On May 19th, while returning from a visit to neighboring Azerbaijan where he had inaugurated a dam, authorities lost contact with Raisi’s helicopter in a mountainous region about 86 kilometers northeast of Tabriz. The next day, state media confirmed Raisi’s death, along with that of the foreign minister who was traveling with him. The official explanation was bad weather, but in Iranian politics, nothing is ever as it seems. Speculation about more nefarious explanations has been rampant, considering Raisi’s long list of enemies both within and outside Iran.
The Complex Iranian Political System
Understanding the implications of Raisi’s death requires an understanding of Iran’s unique political system. Iran is a theocratic democracy, a system that combines elements of both democracy and authoritarianism. At the top is the unelected Supreme Leader, who has the final say on all matters of state, including foreign policy, military strategy, and the economy. Below him is a democratically elected president, who wields significant but ultimately limited power.
After the 1979 revolution, Iran’s leadership created a system that fused Islamic theocracy with republican elements. The result was a government where elected bodies like the presidency and Parliament coexist with unelected entities such as the military, the Judiciary, and advisory bodies like the Expediency Council and the Guardian Council. This intertwining of democratic and theocratic elements creates inherent tensions, particularly evident in times of political crisis.
The Succession Struggle
The death of a president like Raisi in such tumultuous circumstances adds a new layer of complexity to the already intricate succession process of the Supreme Leader. The Supreme Leader is officially selected by the Assembly of Experts, a body of senior clerics and lawyers elected by the public. Raisi was one of the two leading candidates expected to replace Khamenei, the other being Mojtaba.
With Raisi gone, Mojtaba, Khamenei’s second son, emerges as the leading candidate. However, his ascension would make the theocratic process appear more like a hereditary transfer of power, potentially undermining the legitimacy of the entire system. While Raisi’s hardline credentials and experience made him a consensus candidate, Mojtaba’s rise could face significant resistance.
The Role of the Military
A crucial factor in Mojtaba’s potential rise to power is the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Aligning with the IRGC could help Mojtaba secure his position but would also further entrench the military’s influence over Iran’s politics and economy. This shift could lead to a more militaristic and less theocratic governance model, with significant implications for both domestic and foreign policy.
Historical Context and Future Implications
Ali Khamenei, despite being an ultra-conservative, has occasionally supported moderate lawmakers and initiatives, such as backing President Hassan Rouhani and negotiating the nuclear deal with the West. A Supreme Leader without Khamenei’s pragmatic approach could steer Iran towards a more aggressive foreign policy, driven by military interests rather than diplomatic considerations.
The death of Ebrahim Raisi, therefore, not only disrupts the immediate political order but also clouds the future of Iran’s leadership and policy direction. In the short term, the vice president, Muhammad Mokhber, will assume the presidency until a new election is held within 50 days. However, the next presidential election will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Iran’s political landscape.
FAQs
- What happened to Ebrahim Raisi? Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19th, while returning from a visit to neighboring Azerbaijan. The official cause of the crash was reported as bad weather, but speculation about foul play persists.
- Who is expected to succeed Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader? Mojtaba, Khamenei’s second son, is currently the leading candidate. However, his ascension could face resistance due to the perception of a hereditary transfer of power.
- How does Iran’s political system work? Iran has a unique system combining theocratic and democratic elements. The Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority, while the president and Parliament are elected by the public. Various unelected bodies, such as the military and the Judiciary, also wield significant power.
- What impact will Raisi’s death have on Iran’s future? Raisi’s death deepens the political infighting within Iran and complicates the succession process of the Supreme Leader. It may lead to a more militaristic governance model and affect Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.
- How is the Supreme Leader chosen? The Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, a body of senior clerics and lawyers elected by the public.
- What role does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps play in Iran? The IRGC has significant influence over Iran’s politics and economy. Aligning with the IRGC can help secure political power but also entrenches military influence.
Conclusion
Ebrahim Raisi’s death has triggered a seismic shift in Iranian politics, deepening the infighting within the theocratic elite and complicating the succession process of the Supreme Leader. As Iran navigates this period of uncertainty, the decisions made by its political and military leaders will shape the country’s future for decades to come. The balance between theocratic and democratic elements, the role of the military, and the influence of external adversaries are all factors that will play a critical role in determining Iran’s path forward.
